[skunkwerks]

Anyone have an idea? Wonder if PHS has a number based on the VIN #s purchased over the years.

[4dblnkldude]

A straight up guess. 6.598 made. I'd say 80% survived. That leaves 5,278. I think there is about 15% so about 792.

[poncho-mike]

Of all the 70-72 TAs I've owned over the years, I estimate I parted out about 2/3 to 3/4 of them. When I bought my 1970 Formula back in 1982, my insurance agent told me that 80% of all Formula Firebirds and Trans Ams had a major claim turned in within the first two years. This statistic came up because I looked into getting collision insurance on a car I was planning to buy, and I questioned why insurance was so expensive. Numerous 70-72 T/As came my way as wrecks or with blown motors. I would say an 80% survival rate would be extremely optimistic.

[skunkwerks]

Originally Posted by poncho-mike

Of all the 70-72 TAs I've owned over the years, I estimate I parted out about 2/3 to 3/4 of them. When I bought my 1970 Formula back in 1982, my insurance agent told me that 80% of all Formula Firebirds and Trans Ams had a major claim turned in within the first two years. This statistic came up because I looked into getting collision insurance on a car I was planning to buy, and I questioned why insurance was so expensive. Numerous 70-72 T/As came my way as wrecks or with blown motors. I would say an 80% survival rate would be extremely optimistic.

Agree with your conclusion.
I have owned about 30 of these cars over the last 35 years. 60% were scrapped out due to accidents and or other issues and I live in Texas. I would imagine this number is higher for northern cars with the Ice and salt.
I think 30-40% at best for remaining cars just based on my observations.
Would love to see some numbers to get an exact figure but that will probably never happen.
I bet PHS has a good Idea.

I am guessing 2640.

[65madgoat]

Not very many for sure... just look how many restored cars have the wrong fenders or hoods. Beat on and disposed of for the most part.

[eaglesan13]

I've always assumed the survival rate was around 20%, but that is just a guess.

[keith k]

My guess on survival rate would be in the 20-30% range for T/As, too. A lot lower for Formulas, and a whole lot lower for base Birds and Esprits.

[4dblnkldude]

Wow. 20% really? He asked about Trans Ams only. So how many?

[4dblnkldude]

200 maybe?

[eaglesan13]

Trans Am production numbers:

1970 = 3196
1971 = 2116
1972 = 1286

That's a total of 6598 cars for the three years.

6598 x 20% survival rate = 1319.6 cars.
6598 x 30% survival rate = 1979.4 cars.
6598 x 40% survival rate = 2639.2 cars.

I'm going to stick with my original guess of a 20% survival rate. How many of those cars are out there needing restoration is anyone's guess.

[MDSHARK81]

Does the PY forum have information on the numbers of members in this group with 70-72 TA’s listed as ownership on their bio?

['ol Pinion head]

Originally Posted by MDSHARK81

Does the PY forum have information on the numbers of members in this group with 70-72 TA’s listed as ownership on their bio?

Seriously doubt it. There are many here on PY, that dont list all the Pontiacs they have in their collections. not in the info about, or in the signature line.

The previous question concerning inquiries to PHS, I seriously doubt Jim has some sort of cumulative list on inquires on '70-72's. Maybe on folks that have had inquiries on '70 RA4 T/A's Any collection of that data would be skewed by those of us that have sent in inquiries on VIN from loose blocks & loose engines that we have derived the full number & paid the $ to see what it came out of. Know over the decades I've done that on a '70 XP coded 400 & several other blocks. Not the only one to do that.

[MDSHARK81]

I’m not saying you will have a 100% accurate number from PY data. The fact is after all these years, that is an impossible goal. In order to have a somewhat realistic number based on factual info, this would be a place to start. Instead of pulling an arbitrary survival % like (5, 10, or 20).
Another suggestion would be to set up a sticky thread where People can simply chime it with their info. For example auto/manual, color white/blue, etc…. You obviously won’t reach every owner of every car…But I’d bet you would get most since many owners are on PY whether frequent contributor or the occasional ones. You never know…. as word spreads you could get some new members to join, and get close to a real number.

I think most owners of these cars are curious about “how many are left?”
I know I am.

[jhein]

If you had access, you could do a DMV database search and see at least how many are registered.

[poncho-mike]

You could find out how many are registered, but not how many still exist. My two cars are numbers match, complete, no rust cars stored inside. They wouldn't show up on the list. I have another friend that has two cars that are un-restored, a 1970 & a 1971. I would expect there are just as many cars waiting to be restored as there are registered cars.

[71GP76TA]

These cars were beat hard... probably harder than any other muscle car. Surprised any survived.

[Formulas]

Winter snow and ice claimed quite a few, ....A little to much throttle in a corner with a posi and low RPM torque engine on ice and snow, easy to lose it especially someone who bought more car than they could drive

My stick shift 350 2bbl 1970 Esprit is probably pretty rare by original numbers and attrition but would be a money pit because no one would ever really care about it

['ol Pinion head]

Began putting together a "list" of known still existing '72 TransAms nearly 30 years ago. Around that time, knew of 8 '72 TransAms that were somewhat close in my region, along w one that an old friend in MD owns. Remember speaking w Gary (MuscleCollector) around that time, & he knew of 2 of the ones on my "list". Since that time the Internet, BB's, eBay, KIJI, BAT, have come on the scene. Couple that with an absolute DELUGE of checkerboard floor carlot hustlers & all forms of auctions. The result, MUCH MORE EXPOSURE. Unlike the old days of only running across a specific early T/A in Hemmings, Smoke, Auto Trader, Deals on Wheels, local Traders, or encountering a '72 T/A owner through networking, maybe p @ a big show, like T/A Nats, or at a big Swapper.

Believe I have info on near (or little more) than 200 '72 TransAms. Real cars, NOT clones. Need to organize & input a few dozen more '72 sheets which I've wrote down info on in the last few years to get a total. For the '72 model year, have T/A's & Formulas split up into "Early" builds, before Christmas of '71. Then "late" builds, cars that were built with seatbelt warning & 3 pt Irvin seatbelts. In some cases, I don't have the VIN noted, only know or am aquainted w the long time owner. Am sure there are more '72's out there.

Currently, know of over a dozen '70 TransAms in the base project phase missing parts, to '70's that are further intact or further along in the restoration phase. With there being so many more 70's built, have always had leads on 70 RA3 T/A projects.

[R 70 Judge]

Originally Posted by 'ol Pinion head

Began putting together a "list" of known still existing '72 TransAms nearly 30 years ago. Around that time, knew of 8 '72 TransAms that were somewhat close in my region, along w one that an old friend in MD owns. Remember speaking w Gary (MuscleCollector) around that time, & he knew of 2 of the ones on my "list". Since that time the Internet, BB's, eBay, KIJI, BAT, have come on the scene. Couple that with an absolute DELUGE of checkerboard floor carlot hustlers & all forms of auctions. The result, MUCH MORE EXPOSURE. Unlike the old days of only running across a specific early T/A in Hemmings, Smoke, Auto Trader, Deals on Wheels, local Traders, or encountering a '72 T/A owner through networking, maybe p @ a big show, like T/A Nats, or at a big Swapper.

Believe I have info on near (or little more) than 200 '72 TransAms. Real cars, NOT clones. Need to organize & input a few dozen more '72 sheets which I've wrote down info on in the last few years to get a total. For the '72 model year, have T/A's & Formulas split up into "Early" builds, before Christmas of '71. Then "late" builds, cars that were built with seatbelt warning & 3 pt Irvin seatbelts. In some cases, I don't have the VIN noted, only know or am aquainted w the long time owner. Am sure there are more '72's out there.

Currently, know of over a dozen '70 TransAms in the base project phase missing parts, to '70's that are further intact or further along in the restoration phase. With there being so many more 70's built, have always had leads on 70 RA3 T/A projects.

If you don’t already have the info in your database, my brother has a 72 T/A Cameo White, 4 speed, A/C, custom/deluxe blue interior with front and rear consoles. Rear defogger as well. April 72 build shipped to Mc Namara Pontiac, Orlando FL. I can send the phs, just let me know.

[skunkwerks]

200 1972 T/As that are real cars is close to 20% of the original number.
I bet if the owners of the PHS info put their heads together they could give us a close estimate from the inquires. There would be a few outliers but It would be a closer number than just guessing. Rank the data with the most inquiries as solid cars changing hands with the single inquiries as least reliable but still part of the data. statistics is a great tool if you know how to use it.

Very surprised they have not put something like this together for all the years they have been doing this. For someone that sells data you would think they were more curious than just selling it.