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Old 04-12-2020, 01:58 PM
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Daily death rates are statistically meaningless. Too many variables can effect the death rate on any given day. 9-11 would be a good example of that. Much like July 4th would be a statistically meaningless day to compare fireworks injuries to the rest of the days of a year, or the death rate from air travel on the day an airplane crashes.

And the reverse applies, why not pick a day when the fewest people die of Covid, or driving, or cancer etc. No more meaningful than picking a day when the most die.

An average of 365 days IS meaningful. Picking one day would be similar to comparing the death rates in a war based on a single battle.

It has to be kept simple or people won't understand it. Causes, transmissions rates etc. are difficult for most people to understand, the average person is more concerned about what their "odds" are. And much like driving, working a dangerous job, etc. your "odds" can change with your behavior and habits.


Last edited by dataway; 04-12-2020 at 02:03 PM.
  #542  
Old 04-12-2020, 03:04 PM
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So, your 'theory' is that 9-1-1 didn't happen because it doesn't show up in the yearly data?

I would wager this pandemic will show up in the yearly data.



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  #543  
Old 04-12-2020, 03:08 PM
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Link to pdf of the emails that the Red Dawn exercises that were run in the beginning:

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthel...ull.pdf#page=1



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  #544  
Old 04-12-2020, 06:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnta1 View Post
So, your 'theory' is that 9-1-1 didn't happen because it doesn't show up in the yearly data?

I would wager this pandemic will show up in the yearly data.


Seriously? That was your take away? I can see this is going nowhere. No where did I say it wouldn't show up in yearly data, I said DAY to DAY comparisons are meaningless. Please try to be civil. Math has no politics and no opinions, it's just math.

By the way, my brother in-law died in 9-11 so I'm pretty sure it happened. Daniel Robert Nolan worked for Marsh & Mclennan


Last edited by dataway; 04-12-2020 at 06:35 PM.
  #545  
Old 04-12-2020, 07:37 PM
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You're correct, math has no politics or opinions.
But when you use political data that is false it becomes political.

Can you show where you see this aberration in the yearly data?

You are basically saying everyone dying these last 3 months is 'normal'.
I believe a lot of people aren't seeing the 'big' picture.

In the last link I posted read those emails.
Very enlightening.


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  #546  
Old 04-12-2020, 08:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnta1 View Post
You are basically saying everyone dying these last 3 months is 'normal'.
Are you saying it isn't?

James Best
Charles Bronson
R Lee Ermey
Merle Haggard
Stan Lee
Leslie Nielsen

  #547  
Old 04-12-2020, 08:41 PM
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I've put up warnings a number of times...f you want to discuss the issue, that's fine. If you want to argue, go somewhere else.

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