[The Boss]

Originally Posted by marxjunk

of all the opinions i see here...im gonna go with muscle collector's.....the guy has had more cars go thru his hands than anyone can imagine..real finger on the pulse guy...just sayin

^This^

For crying out loud, at one point in time he had 20 (yes 20) 69 Trans Ams. That's not saying he's owned 20 over the last 40 years, I'm sure that number is higher, but he HAD 20 ALL AT THE SAME TIME!

Heck, this guy can't take a walk in the woods with his dog without finding a honeycomb wheel or something like that.

[marxjunk]

didnt he have a dozen+ Hurst Olds in a group too?

[thews]

I really don't care what the outlier uber perfect low mile VIN numbers matching cars can bring, especially when the owner of the car can bid on it to inflate the value at an auction. If you're going to paint an actual distribution of value, the trailer queens don't represent the masses, though they are found on eBay. For those who don't wish to buy a trailer queen for $100K, the cars you can buy if you want one will be found on Craigslist or eBay. Most of the cars owned in this forum have the wrong engine and it's no big deal. Paying bank for a numbers matching date code correct NOS carb is for some, but not most. On a 73-74 SD T/A, it's far more bang-for-buck than a 79 IMO, because the engine in the 79 isn't fast.

Demand will dictate value and the early T/A's (70-73) were fast cars for their time. A 74-81 T/A isn't very fast...regulations made sure of that. They can be modified to be fast, but that detracts from the rare one's value.

[muscle_collector]

unfortunately you are missing the whole concept of what dictates price.

[LateBrakeU2]

Originally Posted by thews

I really don't care what the outlier uber perfect low mile VIN numbers matching cars can bring, especially when the owner of the car can bid on it to inflate the value at an auction. If you're going to paint an actual distribution of value, the trailer queens don't represent the masses, though they are found on eBay. For those who don't wish to buy a trailer queen for $100K, the cars you can buy if you want one will be found on Craigslist or eBay. Most of the cars owned in this forum have the wrong engine and it's no big deal. Paying bank for a numbers matching date code correct NOS carb is for some, but not most. On a 73-74 SD T/A, it's far more bang-for-buck than a 79 IMO, because the engine in the 79 isn't fast.

Demand will dictate value and the early T/A's (70-73) were fast cars for their time. A 74-81 T/A isn't very fast...regulations made sure of that. They can be modified to be fast, but that detracts from the rare one's value.

For the financially solvent element getting in to the hobby, it's about the aesthetic of a car they grew up in or around. They already have cars that are faster than a round port or L78, believe me. The reason the low mile SE's are bumping up against 74 two pedal SD's is counter intuitive IMO. SD's and HO's production were in the several hundred's, you barely saw them even back in the day. Late model second gens were in the several hundred thousands,you either had one or rode in your buddy's and now that 45-60 year old demographic is decidedly trying to re live their youth. There are tens of thousands of millionaires from that gen Y segment that don't flinch at the cost of going back in time, as evidenced by the theatre of the absurd known as BJ. That's an annual extreme example of course, but the trend is undeniable. All JMHO

[Bentwheelbob]

The market almost always has two segments. Those for whom cost is no issue and are collectors of the highest order, and those who have enough money to chase the cars of their youth. For those in the second category, the SE's fall right in the sweet spot. Prime of their careers and earning capacity, kids getting through school, houses getting paid off, still young enough to not be thinking about estate planning. I'm a prime example of exhibit B. Here's my first post about my '78 SE. I'm with Gary, but want to shop his earlier stash before they crash like Model T's.


"I am so completely stoked...Back when I was 15 years old in 1978 I would spend summers at my grandparents in Hart County, Ky. My grandfather was a subsistence farmer and raised 5 kids on whatever he could squeeze out of 114 acres. Four of the kids were boys and they all became engineers. A Phd Chemist, a Phd Nuclear, a Masters Metallurgical, and a BS Metallurgical. Growing up they all had to share a bed. My dad was the eldest and the first to die when I was 9 in a hunting accident. My mom was a saint (and still is), but I was angry ass as a teenager because....In the summers I got sent to the farm to give me and mom recuperation time.

It was great for a young boy. I spent summers fishing the local ponds, working the hay wagon on neighboring farms, shooting groundhogs, suckering and cutting tobacco, and smoking cigarettes in the caretaker shed of the Aetna Grove Baptist Church cemetery. My grandfather John Henry Bennett was my best friend. He was also a Pontiac man. In the summer of 1978 his 1974 Catalina needed to go to his dealer in Munfordville, Kentucky for service and a tune up. At the dealership in the showroom was a gold Trans Am. It was love at first sight. I took back to the farm with me a 1978 Pontiac sales brochure and every night I would lay in bed and look at that car and try to figure out what would be required, and how long it would take, to save enough money to buy it. At the end of the summer the brochure came home with me, but eventually the dream faded away and was replaced by other dreams.

As it turned out it would take 36 years before the dream became reality. Many cars have come before it, why I am not sure. I could have bought one long ago, hard work, determination and luck eventually meant that money wasn't the issue. I have the Green Truck, Red Car, Yellow Car and Black Car, but I never really chased the Gold Car. It seems sort of like one of those facebook romances between men and women who knew each other in High School and 30 years later connected on facebook. It started out innocently, but quickly became an obsession as they remembered what they wanted so long ago.

Well I wanted a Gold Car long ago, and now I have one. It should get delivered in the next 7 to 10 days and I can't wait. ....It's got all the good stuff - Y88, W72, WS6, M21, 3.42 Posi, tilt, gauges.....It a 53K survivor with original paint and pristine interior. It needs some work, mainly under the hood. There's something funky about the dark blue paint on the intake, and the guy who checked it out for me said the right side head also was that same dark blue. We'll see, it'll be part of the adventure and I look forward to that."

[necdb3]

It all boils down to "What I wish I could have afforded when I was in High School". Everyone wishes for that, and when they get settled with the kids and house and now have play money, they buy what they always wanted.

I think modern muscle will surpass older muscle as well at some point. I look at trends of the older guys that are replacing some of their cars with newer ones.

Think about a current High School kid, (probably not into cars) but the few that are, what cars are they lusting for? Most likely modern muscle.

Some day, our beloved cars will all start to fall in value as WE all start to take that dirt nap.

How many of us hear about someone who is "thinning the heard"

[The Boss]

Although some guys will buy cars as a strict investment, most of our decisions are dictated by emotion or worse, passion! For the last year (and really before) I've been chasing 3rd gens - trying to pick up the right cars before they jump....but the jump is already happening!

[muscle_collector]

latebrakeu2 and bentwheelbob get it.

[Judge273]

Just wondering when you say SE cars. Seems like certain SE are the ones raking in big dollars. The Burt cars are those that redefine the 77-78? Unless I'm missing something. All SE are not in the same category...

Just yesterday this..http://www.ebay.com/itm/Pontiac-Tran...m=322003926384

Not seeing SD or 71-72 TA selling for this and seeing some 70 TA sell for 70k?

Maybe this trend will be in coming years? Some say Auto with AC power everything will trump the 4 speed non AC low power too...

BTW: Great topic and shouldn't be hiding here.

[HO Kenny]

Originally Posted by The Boss

Although some guys will buy cars as a strict investment, most of our decisions are dictated by emotion or worse, passion! For the last year (and really before) I've been chasing 3rd gens - trying to pick up the right cars before they jump....but the jump is already happening!

It's easy to spot the desirable second gens. I've been thinking about the 3rd gens. So which 3rd gens bring up passion among the next generation.

[marxjunk]

when i was in highschool...as a sophmpore and junior..all the seniors and drop outs had black and Gold T/As...they where everywhere...and up and down just about every street and parking lot there was...

a drop out named Tim went to work for a trash truck to buy his Black and Gold Trans Am he wanted it so bad...it was a 77 and he put a twin sunroof in it..and a clarion dial stereo....we all saw it..we all lusted for it..we all had to have one...and every guy that knew him wanted to be him...

those memories are the memories that drive mid 50 year olds to spend what ever it takes to get them back...those are the guys spend 60k on an SE...etc...etc...not investors that drive the market....those normal guys have raised babies..have good jobs..and are trying to get back what they couldnt have or afford....and the market will be stronger in the next 3 or 4 years till all the really good ones are bought up...

just my opinion

[Bentwheelbob]

Man, here is a nice looking, clean 1977 W72 M21 no A/C in Bend, OR for less than $17K. Not an SE, but I have always liked Brentwood Brown. Car is also on eBay.

http://www.justusedcars.net/1977_Pon...Am_1911681.veh

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Pontiac-Tran...m=311546073752

[The Boss]

Originally Posted by HO Kenny

It's easy to spot the desirable second gens. I've been thinking about the 3rd gens. So which 3rd gens bring up passion among the next generation.

I bought back the 87 IROC I ordered new, picked up an 83 L69 Z28 off the board here and bought a 91 1LE Z28 out of Milford MI last year. I've bought & sold several others during the year as well. I'd still like to pick up a 1LE Formula and maybe a GTA convertible or a TTA if the right one comes along.

[J GLASGO]

Originally Posted by The Boss

^This^



Heck, this guy can't take a walk in the woods with his dog without finding a honeycomb wheel or something like that.

Chris I have been laughing thinking about this since I read it!!! That is hilarious!

[thews]

Originally Posted by muscle_collector

unfortunately you are missing the whole concept of what dictates price.

Without data, it's just another opinion. Show me some data... I pulled the eBay data to make my point and I don't need to slobber on someone else's shoes to highfive their opinion.

[muscle_collector]

I don't need to present data for the statement I made. go back and reread what I said.

[thews]

Originally Posted by muscle_collector

I don't need to present data for the statement I made. go back and reread what I said.

Thanks for making my point for me. Without data, it's just another opinion... what part did you miss?

[muscle_collector]

Originally Posted by J GLASGO

Chris I have been laughing thinking about this since I read it!!! That is hilarious!

why chris said this was Monday morning my wife and I took happy and our male black shepherd deep into the woods looking for our black female shepherd who didn't come home sunday. we drove the old K5 back as far as we could go and then got out and hiked about a 1/2 of a mile and I told her I don't think I have ever been in this area of the land. I was told there was an indian family that had lived there until the late 70's but I had never found the old homesite. well we came upon a trash dump site and there were several old wheels and tires in it. and of all things I see one that looks like a honeycomb with a trim ring on it and sure enough it was a 14" one. my wife thought I was a nut to carry that thing all the way out of there. by the time I got it back to the K5 it felt like I was carrying a set of 4.

[rexs73gto]

My self I like the 71,2, & 3's . I don't care fro the T/A or birds after that. I don't care for the nose's as they don't really look like a Pontiac any more. The slope nose birds are ones I don't even look at at the shows much any more. 74's are the only ones I even glance at just because of the SD.