[The Champ]

We just joined the group that has sold a home to take advantage of the current market.

We are going to build a new home that is planned to be be our "retirement" home next year. Our plan was to build and move into the new home in 2022, then worry about selling our current home so we didn't have to deal with showing the house while we were living in it.

We're in a rural sub development 25 miles SW of Rochester, MN, just 1 mile outside the village limits of a town of about 1100 people. It's a nice home, about 3600 sq ft finished, that we built in 2005 on 1.25 acres, 4 bedroom, 3 bath, oversize 26x26 attached garage with a 30x40 detached garage.

Back in May I was discussing with a friend that happens to be a real estate broker about our plans to build a new home in 2022. He asked me if we had thought about selling now and renting for a year. Kind of brushed him off, because of having to move twice.

A home in our sub development across the road from us sold in July for what I thought was a crazy number - a number that set the high point for the area. We talked with my friend and we decided to let him show the house without officially putting it on the market. Friday, while we were looking at lots to build on with our builder, I got the call from my friend that we would have an offer on our home on Saturday. Officially, we listed it yesterday afternoon, but only after we accepted the offer that now is the area record for a home (not farm) sale. Closing is set for November 1.

What we sold our home for isn't important. Real Estate values vary wildly from area to area. Our home, if located in Rochester, MN only 25 miles away, would have sold for $100,000 to 200,000 more. If the property was in CA, it would have sold for at least $1,000,000 more. If we lived another 10 - 20 miles further away from Rochester, we'd probably have received $50,000 less.

So, now we start looking for a place to rent and the lot search just when into high gear...

[1969400HO]

Location Location Location
Thats the RE game.
This trend is in for a serious correction .OH Yes it i regardless how long it lasts its getting “ANOTHER” Haircut.
PLAN on it!
Im thinking of selling too, take advantage of this severely over inflated market. and live in a van even for a few years, lotsa ppl do just fine.

[Will]

I'm in the market for a new place now. My girl and I are going to take the plunge and move in together. Wish we had done this last year, prices were a good 15% or more lower than now...

The market here in WA state, especially the greater Seattle metro area is absolutely bonkers. is it a bubble? Maybe, but not at all like last time around. There are a LOT of people with a LOT of money here. Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, F5 networks, and lots of other tech companies that I don't even know about and lots of engineers and management that make $150K+, and lots that make even more than that. If you're a couple and you each make $175k, you can afford a lot of house, especially if you're renting an apartment for the first few years and socking all your money into the bank. Doesn't take long to amass $1M in cash like that.

WA state has seen a big population boom, lots of jobs here and LOTS of people moving here. WA state housing commission recently released a report saying we would need 220,000 new single family homes built just to meet current demand due to population growth. That many houses aren't getting built any time soon, especially not with lumber prices like they are.

So what I'm seeing right now is simple supply and demand. You have a very large population of affluent "techies" making big money and now they can all work from home so the downtown condo in a high rise isn't so attractive any more.

My girl owned one of those - a 640 sf 1-bedroom condo in a 30 story building in the heart of downtown Seattle. Bought it when she moved here back in the late '90s - the building was brand new at the time. Was a very desirable property until just recently. That condo actually would've sold for more money a year or two ago than it did now. She just sold it last week. Downtown Seattle isn't the great place to live it once was - with so many people being able to work from home they've decided they don't want to deal with the homeless disaster that's engulfed downtown and people are moving out of downtown to the outlying areas - and those are the people we're going to have to compete with.

We need to buy a 4 bedroom house and it needs to have lots of room for parking for our fleet of vehicles. Everyone in our family has a car and I have have 5 of them (one is a work vehicle) plus we have a boat. I really want a good sized garage and preferably a shop but I might not get that this time around. So we're looking at areas North of the city but the areas that have the biggest lots and best chances of having shops or extra big garages are also the areas that all the techies are looking in as they are an easy commute to the East side cities of Bellevue and Redmond where lots of offices/companies are located.

So my girl just sold her condo and now I have to sell my house and between us we'll have a nice chunk of money to buy something, but that something is still going to be relatively modest for what it's going to cost. I'm talking 900K - 1.2M for a .5 - 1 acre lot with a decent 4 bedroom house on it, and a lot of the houses we're looking at are very dated and need a lot of upgrading. It's insane. I bought my little house for $200K back in '13 and it'll sell for somewhere around $480-$500K in this market which is the ONLY way we can afford to buy something. The girl keeps looking at more and more expensive houses and I have to remind her that my work is cyclical (construction) and while things are going great right now, if the economy tanks I could be out of work for an extended period so we need to make sure we can pay the mortgage on what I'll be getting for unemployment. She's an upper level administrator at a state hospital/trauma center so her job is pretty immune to economic cycles but I have to take that into consideration and have always structured my finances so that I can survive on unemployment.

If the economy tanks that'll definitely put a damper on prices, but companies like Microsoft and Amazon aren't going anywhere and all the people moving here have to live somewhere. I'm sure there'll be some foreclosures coming also, but as someone else said, it isn't going to be anything like 2008-2010. There's just too much money and too little supply out there right now and I don't know how long that's going to take to correct. I'm sure other areas of the country are different, but that's what's going on here.

[grivera]

If it's anything like the '08 bubble we will see many foreclosures in the market...I tried convincing my wife on selling ours - we did a nice addition with gourmet kitchen in 2018, sitting on one acre with a 30x40' fully finished pole barn and an in-ground pool...pools are on backorder everywhere. My wife wants no part of moving so we stay put...I'd be willing to rent and ride the storm out...

[bird72]

I think a difference of 08 to this is that in 08, real estate growth boom tied to a great economy and stock market.

This real estate boom is not economy tied, but alive on it's own. It is area specific in intensity. It is tied to people with the ability to "escape" (XXXX fill in blank XXXX). It is social, political, economic, quality of life, tax rate, crime rate, traffic level, all kind of stuff rolled in a ball. I think we are in a migration, like dust bowl, like gold rush, except with multiple go to areas. I think it will ramp up even more with work at home (how can it not). The other thing is none of the financial experts I read ever predicted this coming.

Just my two bits. I find this fascinating and weird. and yes, all things must pass (thanks George), but............. I see cooling, not bottom fall out. Not for awhile.

[Mr Anonymous]

We own the vacant lot between us and the neighbor to our east. Two and a half acres. Got another offer in the mail last week, offering to pay WHAT I PAID FOR IT 20 YEARS AGO.... BUT.... It was to be paid in 144 payments!!!! I was hoping they included a Self-Address Stamped Envelope so I could dump rocks and in it and some fecal matter, then send it back to them on their dime.

Been offered 3x what I paid, and still turn it down. I have my flagpole, and a cow pasture over there. Rather look at my cows, rather than some asshats that would build some McMansion - then bitch about the crap I have sitting behind my barn. I'm also trying to buy part of the farm field west of me and merge it into my current home lot, so my property line would look like a Tetris piece.

[Will]

Originally Posted by bird72

I think a difference of 08 to this is that in 08, real estate growth boom tied to a great economy and stock market.

This real estate boom is not economy tied, but alive on it's own. It is area specific in intensity. It is tied to people with the ability to "escape" (XXXX fill in blank XXXX). It is social, political, economic, quality of life, tax rate, crime rate, traffic level, all kind of stuff rolled in a ball. I think we are in a migration, like dust bowl, like gold rush, except with multiple go to areas. I think it will ramp up even more with work at home (how can it not). The other thing is none of the financial experts I read ever predicted this coming.

Just my two bits. I find this fascinating and weird. and yes, all things must pass (thanks George), but............. I see cooling, not bottom fall out. Not for awhile.

Exactly. The BIG difference I see between '08 and now is that '08 was based on speculation and was driven by crap loans to people who didn't actually have any money. This time around it's simple supply and demand. There are a lot of people sitting on mountains of cash and they're not afraid to spend it (multiple all cash offers on million dollar homes bears this out). This is only going to cool off if something happens to make these people want to save their money rather than spend it.

[Formulabruce]

This Boom IS tied to... yup, the economy..But how?
Investors got to "focus" on "essential" services and goods, vs balancing a portfolio.
These investments ( Lowes for example) brought a LOT of people who had over 50K to invest a solid, 20X over normal returns.
This made 20K more millionaires last year and created plenty of people with the "means" to get outta "dodge" .
The stock market in a "recently normal" year is 50% AIR....
Govt spending has caused inflation....
The inflation will absorb a lot of excess profits made last year and in 18 months the housing issue will end.

[Ben M.]

Originally Posted by Formulabruce

The inflation will absorb a lot of excess profits made last year and in 18 months the housing issue will end.

The only way the housing problem is going to go away is if the demand for the houses and property goes away. A large part of the problem on the west coast is large investment groups putting stupid offers in for EVERY property that comes up. While we do have some rich folks who can afford to drop $1mil, it's mostly investment groups\corporations, both domestic and foreign, who feel that owning physical property is safer than having the cash on hand. History has played out so that unless your property is in danger of being swallowed by the sea or a volcano, owning physical property is almost never a bad bet.

I'm now getting offers and cold calls from real estate agents wanting me to sell my place, since I just passed the time frame to avoid capital gains taxes. I tell them the only way I'll sell is for enough to buy another place well over what I owe.

[Mr Anonymous]

Seeing evidence that the top was found here and is heading the other way - or the stuff was completely and ridiculously overpriced to start with.

[bird72]

I have 10 undeveloped acres in the hills here in NW Montana. It is up a really bad road, snowmobile in winter only way. 4WD rest of year. Four separate 10 acre parcels all sold last week in 2 days. A couple weeks ago I went on the interactive map online where you can click on ownership. It was a USA geography lesson. MA, MN, CA, NM, OH, AZ, WI, FL, you get the drift. Montana owners were kinda thin.

Yesterday I was up there, Montana has a lot of fires now, and this newbie RV person had a raging fire going. Not legal in Stage 2 we are at. Turned him in. This is what RE boom brought us.

[Formulabruce]

Originally Posted by Ben M.

The only way the housing problem is going to go away is if the demand for the houses and property goes away. A large part of the problem on the west coast is large investment groups putting stupid offers in for EVERY property that comes up..

Inflation will Stop investors eventually.
People care more about eating, than moving.

[newmexguy]

Originally Posted by bird72

When I was up there, Montana has a lot of fires now, and this newbie RV person had a raging fire going. Not legal in Stage 2 we are at. Turned him in. This is what RE boom brought us.

Burning is technically legal here (Dona Ana County) but the county has to be called to see if it's a "burn day" before any matches are lit. Of course many in the neighborhood go right ahead and burn anyway, immediate neighbors of mine burn clothing and plastic household trash, all the time, in the open. Suspect that right / ability to burn yard waste will probably go away in the near to medium future here.

[vertigto]

Burn plastic? Not smart.

[gobrdgo]

I’m in the OC here in SoCal. My dream was a place in northern Idaho. I thought I could sit on it until I was ready to sell and be a big fish in a small pond in Idaho. Well those days are over so seeing the writing on the wall I bought my homestead now in Missouri without the luxury of the sale of my SoCal house. Of course it’s less than ideal. But it’s 17 acres and good enough for me and my 2 year old to grow up on. Got mine while the getting is good. Fact is a large percentage of people learned to work from home. So why would they want to live in the city? Not to mention the current political climate. This has caused the rural areas to skyrocket.

[The Champ]

Well, after looking all summer for the "right" lot to build our new home on, we bought one on Tuesday. Paid asking price for it, but it was "reasonably" priced. About a third of an acre walkout lot that backs to woods and a creek (the creek is about 30 feet lower than the house will be - no fear of flooding).

We meet with our builder on Wednesday to start fine tuning a house plan we found online. Should end up looking something like this, but will need to add 2 - 4 more garage stalls for the toys (only has a 2 stall as shown).



We'll be moving east on I90, just across the Mississippi River to the greater La Crosse, WI area.

Lower taxes, no tax on SS, no tax on Mrs. Champ's UW pension, much lower sales tax, much less expensive license tabs but the real estate taxes will be somewhat higher.

Question - how do you stuff 3600 sq ft of stuff into an 1800 sq ft townhouse with only a 2 stall garage? Good thing it's temporary....

[tom s]

Things are really stupid here in SoCal.Our neighbor friend sold here 1900 sq ft house last year for like 800K,a young family moved in and did some really nice upgrades,just listed it last week for a mil600 and it looks like they have multi offers on it already.CRAZY.Tom

[59safaricat]

Originally Posted by tom s

Things are really stupid here in SoCal.Our neighbor friend sold here 1900 sq ft house last year for like 800K,a young family moved in and did some really nice upgrades,just listed it last week for a mil600 and it looks like they have multi offers on it already.CRAZY.Tom

It won't last much longer...

[66sprint6]

In places like London and Paris, real estate is virtually unobtainable. Now, people everywhere are of the belief that they will be a slave to renting in perpetuity if they don't get something now. Especialy now with the spectre of corporations buying huge swaths of neighborhoods. Owning a home is the one true value maker in your life, for good or bad if you can hang on. I really like stories like The Champs where they have the sheer luxury of that kind of flexibility. Certainly the exception.

[poncho-mike]

I think there is one big difference between now and 2008 that people are missing. In the years prior to 2008, people were financing houses with variable rate loans to get a super low interest rate. When housing slowed and interest rates reset higher, there were many that couldn't afford the increased payment. Demand weakened and the speculators weren't able to unload their investments for what was owed on them.

Now, interest rates are super low and the rates are not at risk or resetting higher. Why would anybody take a variable rate loan out with the current rates so low. I think inflation will increase in coming years, and the people lucky enough to be in homes with super low interest rates won't be motivated to trade up because the rates will be higher.