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U47 01-26-2019 04:49 PM

Your future, Will you fit???
 
VERY INTERESTING LOOK AT OUR FUTURE!!!

1. Auto repair shops go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical engine has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric engine. Faulty electric engines are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots Essentially, if your electric "Check Motor" light comes on, you simply drive up to what looks like a car wash. Your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new engine.

2. Gas stations go away. Parking meters are replaced by meters that dispense electricity. All companies install electrical recharging stations.

3. All major auto manufacturers have already designated 5-6 billion dollars each to start building new plants that only build electric cars.

4. Coal industries go away. Oil companies go away.
Drilling for oil stops.

5. Homes produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users.

A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.

1. The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle! In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people won't see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975 The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health,
autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Welcome to the Exponential Age!!

2. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

3 Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, yet they are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

4. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties .

5. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

6. In the U.S., young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson , you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain.

6A. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

7. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

8. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will
appear for the public Around 2020, the complete industry
will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

8A. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives worldwide each year.

8B. Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

8C. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla

9. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.
Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue... technology will take care of that strategy.

14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this
year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.

16. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

17. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

18. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

19. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

20. Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: "In the future, do I think we will have that?" And, if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

20A. If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

20B. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.

21. Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

22. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

23. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source".
PS. We are wired for linear change. Problem is we are now in the accelerating curve of EXPONENTIAL change. Fasten your seatbelts.

Stuart 01-26-2019 05:35 PM

The problem with people predicting the future is they don't know what will happen. The classic example is flying cars...they were predicting those for decades, but outside of a few odd vehicles it never happened.

Murf 01-26-2019 05:47 PM

https://g.co/kgs/X9sJNP


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

carbking 01-26-2019 05:48 PM

Solar production of electricity has been on an exponential curve for 30 years?????????

Anyway, interesting to read.

And software IS disrupting industry. Everytime my (will not mention computer name to prevent lockout) computer gets an update, something fails to work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The last update killed our local area network, so I have to carry files from any computer to the print server on a USB device in order to print! That IS disruptive!

Wonder when the author of this article is going to call and want a discount on a RAIV carburetor? ;)

Jon.

Simple Man 01-26-2019 05:50 PM

point 19, not a 6 story office, but a 5 story apartment.
https://www.cnet.com/au/news/worlds-...cted-in-china/

goats2quick 01-26-2019 05:57 PM

:cool:well, ive been at kodak for 25 years. i worked 75 hours this week. a day off would be nice:car:

BOB VIDAN 01-26-2019 06:15 PM

I don't fit now, so much for the future.

PunchT37 01-26-2019 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOB VIDAN (Post 5984892)
I don't fit now, so much for the future.

You're not alone.

60sstuff 01-26-2019 06:41 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by BOB VIDAN (Post 5984892)
I don't fit now, so much for the future.

I hear ya.

carcrazy 01-26-2019 06:46 PM

Maybe it is better to be going than coming!

Half-Inch Stud 01-26-2019 08:09 PM

I dislike cheap digital products, can tolerate quality digital IPad.

Certainly enjoy the vacuum tube audio products, having had high quality in the design and materials.

So, this "cost-reduced" crap from Walmart and others reminds me of our kitchen tools hobby; we looks for the best kitchen stuff regardless of year made. Makes cooking nice.

See, this way i/we fit-in with the present and future.

66sprint6 01-26-2019 08:52 PM

It used to be a utopian dream. But lately the future can be as alarming as an old science fiction novel, where it all went awry. Car guys have always done things their own way and the attached skillsets lend more to an individual rather than a transit riding plebe.
It's not a future that I didn't see coming. But I still believe that "they" are optimistic on the timelines. They're going to need at least some infrastructure to facilitate this and I don't see them moving on it.

MUSLCAH 01-26-2019 08:56 PM

Reading that much gives me a headache......4 lines is all I need.....

U47 01-26-2019 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 66sprint6 (Post 5984952)
It used to be a utopian dream. But lately the future can be as alarming as an old science fiction novel, where it all went awry. Car guys have always done things their own way and the attached skillsets lend more to an individual rather than a transit riding plebe.
It's not a future that I didn't see coming. But I still believe that "they" are optimistic on the timelines. They're going to need at least some infrastructure to facilitate this and I don't see them moving on it.


California and Europe won't be selling Gasoline or diesel cars after 2030 - they've already passed that legislation. Auto industry is now heavily involved now and committed. Try reading " Automotive News " our industry trade newsletter and see.

77 TRASHCAN 01-26-2019 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MUSLCAH (Post 5984956)
Reading that much gives me a headache......4 lines is all I need.....

Amen!!' 10 gallons of crap won't fit in a one gallon jug!!!

Stuart 01-26-2019 09:22 PM

Not quite accurate...

"On January 26, governor Jerry Brown signed an executive order that commits the state to a goal of having 5 million zero-emissions cars on its roads by 2030. "

"The internal combustion engine appears to be on its last lap. More than nine countries and a dozen cities or states have announced what the media has called “bans” in the last few years. Copenhagen mayor Frank Jensen wants the city to end all new diesel cars starting next year. Last December, Paris, Madrid, Athens and Mexico City said they would remove diesel cars and vans by 2025. Norway will phase out conventional cars by 2025, followed by by France and the United Kingdom in 2040 and 2050, respectively. Yet despite all these commitments, no country has actually passed a law prohibiting anything. "

poncho-mike 01-26-2019 09:41 PM

When I was a freshman engineering student back in 1977, I took a course that explored the future of engineering and society. The personal computer hadn't been invented yet, but we were seeing the first hand calculators with basic programming capability. Our professor was very liberal, and he talked of a future eutopia where machines displaced humans in manual labor and unskilled labor jobs, leaving free time for everyone to pursue more leisure activities.

I got two Bs on the way to graduating with my BSME, and one was in that course. I got into a discussion with the professor regarding where the money was going to come from if most jobs were replaced by robots. He said it would be up to society and the government to take care of people's basic needs. I stated that the government got its funding from taxpayers, and if nobody was working who was paying the taxes. He indicated that corporate taxes would fund this eutopian society. It was useless arguing with the guy, it was obvious he had never worked outside of the university in his whole life.

I know we're moving more in that direction, but the basic question still stands. When computers, robots, and AI replace humans, who is going to provide living funds for those displaced. Idle minds and hands will cause a lot of problems. We're already hearing some talk about "basic income" and "wealth inequality", the forces currently at work will only make those matters worse.

U47 01-26-2019 09:52 PM

Copenhagen, Denmark
Ban new diesel cars from entering the Danish capital
Copenhagen’s mayor said last year he will introduce legislation to ban diesel cars registered after 2018. “It’s not a human right to pollute the air for others. That’s why diesel cars must be phased out,” he told Danish newspaper Politiken


Rome, Italy
Ban diesel vehicles from city center by 2024
Mayor Virginia Raggi announced a plan to ban diesel cars from city center by 2024. “If we want to intervene seriously, we have to have the courage to adopt strong measures,” she wrote on Feb. 27 on her Facebook page.




Norway
Target of no new gasoline or diesel vehicle sales by 2025
In 2016, Norwegian politicians agreed to an ambitious goal of phasing out all conventional cars: “There is an agreement on a target of zero new fossil-fuel cars sold as from 2025. No outright ban, but strong actions required,” tweeted Norway’s then-Environment and Climate Change minister Vidar Helgesen in 2016. Today, nearly 40% of all cars sold in Norway are electric or hybrid.



Athens, Paris, Madrid, Mexico City
End use of all diesel vehicles by 2025
At a 2016 conference, city leaders committed to “stop the use of all diesel-powered cars and trucks by the middle of the next decade” and incentivize electric, hydrogen and hybrid vehicles.


Paris
Ban on diesel in city by 2025. Ban on all internal combustion vehicles by 2030.
Paris pledged to ban diesel engines by 2025, and phase out all combustion-engine cars by 2030. “This is about planning for the long term with a strategy that will reduce greenhouse gases,” said Christophe Najdovski, head of Paris transport policy in October 2017. “Transport is one of the main greenhouse gas producers … so we are planning an exit from combustion engine vehicles, or fossil-energy vehicles, by 2030.”



India
No new gasoline or diesel vehicles by 2030 (if economical)
In 2017, the Indian government announced the “ambition, that by 2030, all vehicles sold in India may be electric-powered.” The energy department’s plan will depend on the costs of electric cars falling far enough to make it economical.


Ireland
No new gasoline or diesel vehicle by 2030
The country will ban sales of all gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2030. Cities such as Dublin are required to only buy electric buses after 2018.



Israel
Ban import of all gasoline and diesel fuel cars by 2030. Only natural gas and electric vehicles permitted.
Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz told a conference last February that “from 2030 onwards, the State of Israel will create alternatives and will no longer allow the import of cars that run on gasoline and diesel fuel. … We intend to reach a situation in which Israel’s industry will be based on natural gas, and most importantly, transportation in Israel will be based on natural gas or electricity.”


Brussels, Belgium
Diesel ban in Belgian capital by 2030
The government of Brussels agreed to introduce a diesel ban in Belgium’s capital by 2030. Restrictions on gasoline cars are being considered.


Netherlands
All vehicles emission free by 2030
A Dutch parliamentary coalition agreement stated in October 2017 that “the aim is for all new cars to be emission-free by 2030. Phasing out the tax incentives for zero-emission cars will be brought into line with this ambition.” (page 39, document in Dutch)


France
No new gasoline or diesel vehicle sales by 2030
The French government’s 2017 Climate Plan, pledges to “take greenhouse gas-emitting vehicles off the market by 2040: stopping sales of petrol or diesel cars will encourage car manufacturers to innovate and take the lead on this market.”


United Kingdom
No sales of conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2040. Reduce national vehicle emissions to zero by 2050.
The UK government committed to end sales of new conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2040. Instead of completely banning petrol and diesel vehicles, it states (paywall) the “majority” of new cars and vans sold by 2040 should be zero emissions, and all should have zero emissions “capability” (such as hybrids). By 2050, the UK says it will reduce vehicle emissions to virtually zero by 2050 with “almost every car and van” zero-emissions by 2050. Scotland’s Parliament announced more ambitious plans to phase out petrol and diesel cars by 2032.


Taiwan
No new non-electric motorcycles by 2035 and four-wheel vehicles by 2040
The country’s Environmental Protection Administration plan would ban all sales of nonelectric motorcycles and four-wheel vehicles by 2035 and 2040, respectively.


China
No date given on phase-out of combustion engines
China is developing a long-term plan to phase out combustion engines, according to Xin Guobin, a government official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. “Some countries have made a timeline for when to stop the production and sales of traditional fuel cars,” he told Chinese state media last September, noting the ministry had started “relevant research” to finalize a timeline. “Those measures will certainly bring profound changes for our car industry’s development.” Experts anticipate (paywall) the country will impose the phase-out ban alongside carbon controls expected around 2030.


Germany
Ban on sale of new diesel cars expected. Considering ban on all internal combustion engines by 2040 in line with Britain and France.
Germany has not set a timeline but chancellor Angela Merkel said in Aug. 2017 that the country must eventually join other European countries banning new diesel cars.” She called plans by Britain and France to phase out fossil-fuel powered cars by 2040 “the right approach,” while adding, “I don’t want to name an exact year.” German cities are already pushing for their own diesel bans.


US states: California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts,
New York, Oregon,
Rhode Island, and Vermont. Canadian provinces:
Québec
Reduce national vehicle emissions to zero by 2050.

“We will strive to make all passenger vehicle sales in our jurisdictions ZEVs as fast as possible, and no later than 2050

Half-Inch Stud 01-26-2019 10:09 PM

News flash gasoline cars will remain in effect for the forseeable Century.

Lemans64 01-26-2019 10:31 PM

NO I will not fit in the future as I do not fit in now as an Old Auto tech.
I'm on the way out and don't really care for what is to come in the future auto Industry.
Can't see the issue so really hard to fix. It's just out there somewhere in electrical nightmare industries. LOL.

64speed 01-26-2019 11:56 PM

And what about the people that can’t afford to buy these zero emissions vehicles? Public transportation is wonderful in urban areas but out here in Rural SC if I don’t have a car I don’t go anywhere. Uber doesn’t even serve my area yet and I am only 15 miles from Clemson. This is a pipe dream. What about farm equipment and generators and the like. The best case scenario I can see is them forcing us into the use of natural gas but even then that will take a very long time. I still see 30 and 40 year old cars on the road here everyday. These people aren’t gonna run out and buy a volt anytime soon. Also oil lobby in this country is way more powerful than it is in Europe.

U47 01-27-2019 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 64speed (Post 5985052)
And what about the people that can’t afford to buy these zero emissions vehicles? Public transportation is wonderful in urban areas but out here in Rural SC if I don’t have a car I don’t go anywhere. Uber doesn’t even serve my area yet and I am only 15 miles from Clemson. This is a pipe dream. What about farm equipment and generators and the like. The best case scenario I can see is them forcing us into the use of natural gas but even then that will take a very long time. I still see 30 and 40 year old cars on the road here everyday. These people aren’t gonna run out and buy a volt anytime soon. Also oil lobby in this country is way more powerful than it is in Europe.


The Volt is being discontinued.

Oil companies are heavily invested in ALL forms of the Energy Business. They will never be hurt.

Will 01-27-2019 02:00 AM

What is this nonsense about not needing repair shops? The engine is only one component in a car and repair shops don't rebuild them any more anyway.

Cars will still have suspensions, brakes, window motors and lock solenoids and windshield wipers and the linkages associated with them, heating and cooling systems, and loads of electronics, plus plenty of other things I haven't mentioned, all of which are subject to failure and will require maintenance.

There is a lot of Truth in the OP but there are also some fallacies.

One of my biggest concerns is automation. The powers that be seem to be rather shortsighted. Once a large enough number of jobs are lost to machines there won't be enough consumers left to buy the goods and services the machines produce.

Sirrotica 01-27-2019 11:00 AM

All well and good until the batteries in all these conveyances need replaced, the battery recycling and manufacturing creates a larger carbon footprint than hydrocarbon powered vehicles.

I have a hard time believing solar panels will be able to provide enough electricity when in their grand scheme everything will run on electricity, the demand is going to be huge, current grids will not handle the added loads imposed as they're barely can keep up with current demands. Third world countries don't even have a working electrical infrastructure currently so who is going to pay for the needed improvements there?

A lot of unanswered questions that no one knows the answers to. I suspect the tree huggers worked this all out at the Paris Climate Treaty in a couple days, and left a lot of loose ends no one has looked at the monetarily and practicality. The dreamers that have no common sense is how this stuff is born and when the crap hits the fan the little guys get stuck with cleaning up the dreamers messes.

BTW, I have never fit in to the predetermined profile of the average person, I won't fit the future one either. Trying to put the round peg into the square hole won't work unless the peg is rubber and has no backbone...………..:rolleyes:

U47 01-27-2019 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirrotica (Post 5985156)
All well and good until the batteries in all these conveyances need replaced, the battery recycling and manufacturing creates a larger carbon footprint than hydrocarbon powered vehicles.

I have a hard time believing solar panels will be able to provide enough electricity when in their grand scheme everything will run on electricity, the demand is going to be huge, current grids will not handle the added loads imposed as they're barely can keep up with current demands. Third world countries don't even have a working electrical infrastructure currently so who is going to pay for the needed improvements there?

A lot of unanswered questions that no one knows the answers to. I suspect the tree huggers worked this all out at the Paris Climate Treaty in a couple days, and left a lot of loose ends no one has looked at the monetarily and practicality. The dreamers that have no common sense is how this stuff is born and when the crap hits the fan the little guys get stuck with cleaning up the dreamers messes.

BTW, I have never fit in to the predetermined profile of the average person, I won't fit the future one either. Trying to put the round peg into the square hole won't work unless the peg is rubber and has no backbone...………..:rolleyes:


I find the biggest problem is getting what you said in their thick heads. And what are you going to do with all these idle hands, especially the ones that are streaming into the country without control with no skills and education?

Sirrotica 01-27-2019 01:40 PM

People with higher education usually think they have all the answers because it said so in some book they read, formulas, etc. They have a piece of sheepskin or paper that says they completed the necessary courses to get that accreditation, it does not give you superior intellect.

Common sense is not taught in college so therein lies the disconnect of theory vs actual reality. Reasoning is not taught for the most part, seems it's a carried trait that some people just cannot grasp the concept of. :focus:

1965gp 01-27-2019 02:45 PM

They will need stronger opioids to keep all these people busy since they won’t be working.

One thing for sure is that our lifestyle is going to change. Maybe not as fast as they want but it will change. I have a friend in San Diego that doesn’t get a bill from the electric company, they get a check because their house produces more solor power than they use. And this was installed 15 years ago so I can certainly see it improving.

I don’t think all of this will happen, but most of it probably will.

cabhop 01-27-2019 02:54 PM

I wonder if this will affect the buggy whip or wheelwright industry?

66sprint6 01-27-2019 02:54 PM

Same crap, different pile anyway if you have to produce, store and transport energy. Tell me that won't create its own problems, with anything from quality to security.
Right now, battery technology is a joke. Not mentioned in many of these articles. It would be a miracle to have a battery pack one tenth the size of the current Tesla's in the near future. I hope that it happens, but it is the missing piece of the electro-digital future currently.

johnta1 01-27-2019 03:15 PM

One needs to understand that change happens very gradually. Most won't even know they are changing.

I can remember when gas went to 50 cents. EVERYONE was going to quit driving and sell their car.

Then it went to a dollar! OH MY GOSH! Country going to H3LL! They're going to go buy a horse and ride it.
:rolleyes:

Or the color TV?

Or the microwave? Half said the radiation would kill everyone or produce aliens or something.
:rolleyes:

Or even recently, EFI would never ever take over the carburetor.
:confused:

Go read about the World's Fair in like NY or Chicago or whatever back in the early 50's / 60's and see what was envisioned for us.

:)

Most of these things written in the list is fear mongering or trolling possibly.

But if one has to worry about stuff like this, that's sad in itself.

:(

Simple Man 01-27-2019 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnta1 (Post 5985283)
One needs to understand that change happens very gradually. Most won't even know they are changing.

I can remember when gas went to 50 cents. EVERYONE was going to quit driving and sell their car.

Then it went to a dollar! OH MY GOSH! Country going to H3LL! They're going to go buy a horse and ride it.
:rolleyes:

Or the color TV?

Or the microwave? Half said the radiation would kill everyone or produce aliens or something.
:rolleyes:

Or even recently, EFI would never ever take over the carburetor.
:confused:

Go read about the World's Fair in like NY or Chicago or whatever back in the early 50's / 60's and see what was envisioned for us.

:)

Most of these things written in the list is fear mongering or trolling possibly.

But if one has to worry about stuff like this, that's sad in itself.

:(

AMEN!

ta6point6 01-27-2019 08:21 PM

Change is coming it is inevitable if you are stuck in the past"...........welll. I hate change but it comes to everything.

bird72 01-27-2019 08:30 PM

I just hope I live to see man on Mars.

GT182 01-27-2019 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goats2quick (Post 5984885)
:cool:well, ive been at kodak for 25 years. i worked 75 hours this week. a day off would be nice:car:

You are one of the lucky ones, so don't complain too much or too loud... they can hear you. Enjoy the overtime while you can. Kodak might completely disappear one of these days. At least you're making better money than I did when I worked for them back in the 70s.

daduck 01-27-2019 11:29 PM

#19 on the list - 3D printing.

About frigin' time!!!!!

Let's 3D print some 1977 Grand Prix parts!!!!!!!!!

Will 01-28-2019 05:02 AM

Battery technology is advancing rapidly. Heck, 20 years ago lithium ion batteries were in their infancy and not really commercially viable, now they're used for all kinds of things. There are newer battery technologies under development now that will be safer and have higher energy density. I don't think it's unreasonable to speculate that in another 20 years or batteries half the current size will hold twice as much energy.

Generation and grid upgrades will certainly be necessary. I think solar generators are probably the future, or at least a big part of it. Solar power towers utilizing salts are a very promising technology.

I've no doubt that fossil fuels are on the way out for ground transportation. Air transportation is another story.

TAKerry 01-28-2019 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabhop (Post 5985275)
I wonder if this will affect the buggy whip or wheelwright industry?

Took the words out of my mouth, LOL, and what about the switchboard operator?
One thing for sure, all of these electronics need a dry place to reside. Should always be a need for a good roofer!

bird72 01-28-2019 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TAKerry (Post 5985595)
Took the words out of my mouth, LOL, and what about the switchboard operator?
One thing for sure, all of these electronics need a dry place to reside. Should always be a need for a good roofer!

Roofer Drones

Chief of the 60's 01-28-2019 11:56 AM

"Fit in" sounds like conforming to a particlar group or organization. I don't roll that way. There are always those that will change themselves just to "fit in" to what they perceive to be the cool group. Not me. Its a stupid way to go through life being someone you are not but so many do it.

brians 01-28-2019 03:51 PM

No I would not fit in and personally, do not see the end of the internal combustion engine in my lifetime.
The politicians can pass all the legislation timelines they want but can guarantee there will be extension upon extension. The world economy is dependent on the oil and gas industry. Texas alone has a couple of million people working in that field.

Few points:
Right now, a gallon of gas is cheaper than Tesla’s Supercharger stations. (At least by me)
This morning, a gallon of cheap unleaded was $1.97. That is way less for inflation then a gallon in 1970.

The Tesla battery has an 8yr warrantee. What do you do after that when the batteries cost thousands?
Unless something drastically changes, the vehicles will be in a junkyard. There will be no more used car market.

There are electrical grid upgrades and upkeep issues.

Only see the government getting rid of fuel when they tax it so high that people have to switch due to cost or an actual better way is invented, not just the same car powered a different way. Who knows, maybe I’ll see the Star Trek Transporter be perfected in my life time. Now a personal transporter, I would buy.

U47 01-28-2019 04:02 PM

A very good friend of mine had sent me that link. He retired from a power company in the northwest as a power station manager and consultant. He sent it to me because the topic effects not only his industry, but the auto industry from which I was a part of for over four decades. There are people in our government as well as governments in many countries that are pushing this. The auto industry is well on it's way to electrification which will effect all of us in small and large ways. One of the ways it's going to effect us will be the Automotive business and a trickle down to antique, collector car hobby and that is why I posted it. Forewarned is Forearmed as they say. To condemn it is fine, but we must be able to protect the assets like oil and fuel so our hobby can continue and be affordable and not bury our heads in the sand.

johnta1 01-28-2019 04:03 PM

Quote:

The Tesla battery has an 8yr warrantee. What do you do after that when the batteries cost thousands?
Unless something drastically changes, the vehicles will be in a junkyard. There will be no more used car market.

Why would anyone spend $12,000 for a set of aluminum heads?
Thousands for a battery? No problem. By then they'll probably be hundreds.


Not sure of your age, but back when the slot car craze was going on (early 60's), I knew guys who spent a lot of money to switch the electric motors to faster ones. These were school kids mostly. Imagine doing that to a Tesla?
It's already faster than most gas powered cars.
Why not hop it up? Or the batteries? (more volts makes it faster I imagine)


Again, change will happen, some won't like it, but that's the way it's been for eons.


:)

dataway 01-28-2019 04:05 PM

There is no fate but what you make. -- Sarah Conner

66sprint6 01-28-2019 04:24 PM

I haven't seen public transit mentioned much. I believe that's because with all of these little cars zipping around, no one would take the transit. We have some major transit plans here and I believe that they are obsolete.

U47 01-28-2019 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief of the 60's (Post 5985658)
"Fit in" sounds like conforming to a particlar group or organization. I don't roll that way. There are always those that will change themselves just to "fit in" to what they perceive to be the cool group. Not me. Its a stupid way to go through life being someone you are not but so many do it.


DON"T ROLL THAT WAY?


I don't either just ask my close friends or my wife.

I'm mad as hell that I can't find replacement parts for my two 7" reel to reel tape machines and having zillions of hours on tapes I'll never get to play. I'm mad as hell I can't buy new LP albums for my 1229 and my 721 Dual turntables.
I'm mad as hell I can't find a replacement for my Sony play/record cassette tape machine and countless tapes I can't listen to.
And now my CD's are going to suffer the same fate!

I'm mad as hell I can't easily buy and process 35mm film for my Olympus OM1 and OM10 that I spent hundreds on. AND those telephoto and wide angle lens that I paid hundreds for WON'T interface with a new digital camera.


I'm mad as hell I can't get lacquer paint for my cars so I can shoot without a booth.

I'm mad as hell I can't get R12 for my cars that were designed for R12!

I'm mad as hell I can't get leaded fuel for five of my antique cars that were designed for it.

I'm mad as hell I can't get oil base paint for my house!


Those are just a few things off the top of my head.


Whether you like it or not you ARE conforming. Drip, Drip, Drip

:eek:

TAKerry 01-28-2019 05:19 PM

Think those things are bad, I had the ignition switch go out on a 20 yo Case construction equipment today. Called the dealer, they no longer have parts for the model I have and have no idea where to get them!

dataway 01-28-2019 05:44 PM

That's unusual for heavy equipment isn't it? I know with AG equipment ... jeez you can get stuff for 40 year old equipment no problem.

Will 01-29-2019 03:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by U47 (Post 5985783)
DON"T ROLL THAT WAY?


I don't either just ask my close friends or my wife.

I'm mad as hell...

:eek:

You must be a lot of fun at parties.

Things change. It has ever been thus. We are the dominant species on the planet because of our ability to adapt and innovate. The only constant in life is change.

Life is too short to spend it being mad at **** I have no control over. And honestly being able to carry around my entire music collection and play it anywhere is pretty damned cool. I don't miss my CDs for a second. I still have a decent LP collection and it's fun to play them occasionally but I wouldn't want to buy any new ones, though new LPs are being produced for limited markets. One of the things I really appreciate about the digital music market is that I don't have to buy an entire album to get one or two songs I like.

35mm film is still being produced. Certainly not as many varieties as there used to be, but if you want to give your old Oly rig a workout and flex your creative muscles, you can still do it with film. Olympus made some nice stuff. Again though, there's a reason that market is dying. I still have my Nikon F100 but haven't picked it up in close to a decade. Give me digital all day long. No more buying film and changing film rolls at inconvenient times, and carrying around canisters of film and then paying to have it developed (or building your own dark room and dicking around with chemicals). I can carry my camera and a couple batteries on a week long backpacking trip and shoot as many frames as I want and sort and process them all on my home computer for literally pennies on the dollar compared to film. Shooting digital has allowed me to practice and expand my creativity in ways I probably never would have with film.

https://willbaker.zenfolio.com

I'm sorry that you're stuck in your ways and angry about it. I hope that you can find some peace and serenity going forward. Life should be enjoyed, we're only here for a short time.

bird72 01-29-2019 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by U47 (Post 5985783)
I'm mad as hell that I can't find replacement parts for my two 7" reel to reel tape machines and having zillions of hours on tapes I'll never get to play.


I'm into reel to reel. I can give you name of rebuilder. He has a huge junkyard of parts and source on parts such as new rebuilt rollers etc. Also FYI, reasonable NEW tape is now available (ATR). Old machines typically need a total rebuild, weren't made to run 50 years! Also, depending brand of old tape you have, it may or may not have good sound still. example: some types of Ampex go to heck totally. Most tape will survive if not subjected to heat or bad humidity.

hurryinhoosier62 01-29-2019 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by U47 (Post 5984965)
California and Europe won't be selling Gasoline or diesel cars after 2030 - they've already passed that legislation. Auto industry is now heavily involved now and committed. Try reading " Automotive News " our industry trade newsletter and see.

Legislation can be overturned. I really wouldn’t use California or Europe as an example of success unless you define success by the misery of its residents....


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