The threat of electric
 

With the threat of all the cars being built electric in the near future what are your thoughts on the future of our loves? Are you concerned at all that all the love and money we put into restoring and modifying or cars will all be for not? Will we have to sell a kidney for a little fuel?

I am in the middle of restoring my car for the third time and would really like to enjoy it with gasoline in it, then leave it to my niece when the time comes and have her enjoy it. I would really hate to see a mass production of wimp mobiles without thoughts to what people really need. We just got 23" of snow here, I know that is not much for other places, but it is a hit here. I just can't see a Volt plowing thru it and the battery dying in the middle of the highway.
Unless you buy a high end electric SUV and spend what my mortgage was I just can't see it yet. Give me my 95 Chevy 3/4 ton abuse mobile anytime for now.

Its a long way away for a lot of reasons. Infrastructure, battery availability, plus its not like they can mandate overnight that everyone have the money to buy an electric vehicle. I think you will see them pushing MFGs to get cleaner and cleaner, which will organically put more eco friendly cars on the road, but over a long period of time. I would personally like to see all fully electric or hybrid semi trucks before passenger cars.

IMO the outlook for combustion engines in cars and trucks is good.

Electric motor cars and trucks will only succeed in known, invariant travel routes for quite some time.

Which is why I think the focus would be better placed in the commercial trucking market. Semis are dirtier by far to start with. Companies are more likely to be able to upgrade fleet vehicles than the common consumer for myriad reasons. And as you mentioned commercial trucking mostly follow known routes and stop at predetermined locations that service their type of vehicle.

It would be easier to upgrade truck stops to charging stations than all other gas stations.

The electrical infrastructure will be a major hurdle to overcome. States like NY can CA can barely meet their electrical needs now, imagine a million more electric cars charging up every day. Using an average of 70 kwh to charge a car, say four times a month, 280 kwh extra for the month. My typical house/shop usage is 800-900 kwh a month averaged over the year. So about 32% more electricity I would use. One million additional electric cars would equal the equivalent of 320,000 new homes.

California has 15 million cars, if they were all electric it would be like adding 4,800,000 new homes to power. California barely has the power to supply the homes that have right now. Not only would massive new generation be necessary, the grid would have to be total rebuilt to handle the load, right down to the neighborhood distribution and the service entrance to millions of older homes.

Multiply this times the 250 million cars in the US .... we just don't have the power ... unless they want to build a thousand new power plants and power them with fossil fuels.

In winter climates you can expect considerably less efficiency as you expend about 10,000 BTU or 3 kw per hour to pre-warm, defrost and maintain heat in the car. Same for air conditioning in hot climates. This will probably become less of a factor as battery power density increases.

It will be a long time in coming, probably 40 years assuming no worldwide calamities in the mean time. No telling what kind of battery power we will have in 40 years, I'd expect range to no longer be factor, performance would be whatever you want it to be.

There is still hydrogen ... although engineers in the know say "Hydrogen is the fuel of the future .... and always will be." But IC engines can run quite well on hydrogen and produce great power, and exhaust water. Problem is again power density, takes a lot of hydrogen to do the work, and it's hard to compress and store in a safe manner in suitable quantity for a car. Not to mention it usually take more energy to produce hydrogen that it makes when you consume it, but that could change. Hydrogen would probably be used for electrical generation in hydrogen fuel cells rather than IC engines.

I have read some interesting articles on the production of hydrogen using natural biological processes.

Energy density is the final word in what will be used to move vehicles. Right now fossil fuels offer the highest per pound/volume source of energy but the gap closes every year. Haven't done the math but I'd guess if they double current battery power density it would be very close to equaling that of gasoline.

I'm not worried about the day I can't buy a new gas or diesel vehicle. I'm worried about the day I can't find a gas station nearby, or can't plan a road trip knowing there will be enough gas stations along the way.

I agree with the pitfalls of the infrastructure. I pointed out in another thread- imagine parking your car on the street in Boston. Are you running an extension cord to it? In the snow?

What if you live in a hose with 3-4 drivers and multiple vehicles?

They will be a niche market until they can be charged with solar or we have charging stations by every mail box.

Dataway makes some really good points- but that is at today’s electricity prices. If that’s all green energy it will go up substantially and won’t be any savings, let alone the conveniences they sacrifice.

You are fine for at least twenty years. After that, things might start to get less robust. The vision is electric vehicles that charge primarily at night at the owners home, thus reduced need for "refueling" stations. Electric grid has spare capacity at night, so this reduces infrastructure demands. Also, greater adoption of roof top solar reduces load on electric grid further.

Tesla plans 20M electric vehicles in 2030. Current world market for vehicles is 90M/yr. In 2030, likely 20% of new vehicles still fuel based, but the fleet is large, and has a lifetime of 20 years.

The threat to collector cars isn't EV's.

The threat is and always will be the same one that has plagued the hobby for years now. Lack of interest by the younger population. Placing blame on EV's is just a poor excuse.

If you're that worried about your "investment", get a group of your car buddies together and go visit a local school or Boy's Club with your cars. Expose kids to cars and why they're cool. Hell, their parents aren't going to do it.

If you only get 1 kid excited enough to take a vested interest, that's 1 more that without your effort, would never have had the experience.

So STOP with the excuses.

Take someone that wants to go hunting in a pickup truck. You can carry spare fuel into the back country, we do it every year. Do you take spare batteries? If so, are they standardized - does every car use the same battery pack? If so, and they are light enough to replace yourself, hey that's not so bad.

I don’t think 100% non fossil fueled cars will happen very soon.
I am more concerned with the possibility that our older, less fuel efficient vehicles could be legislated off the road as a step towards the “green” idealistic yet unrealistic world.

The one thing my company is starting to use are the big service trucks and dump trucks are powered by natural gas. Waste Management has a landfill near here that has a service station for their garbage trucks and anyone else that has a natural gas engine. The prices are pretty resonable and you get about the same BTU's as a deisel fuel. One of the drawbacks are a long time filling the tanks and mods to your garages for exhaust fans and sensors for the in- case -of leaks. Or ya just leave the trucks outside.

5 minute battery charging times are now being tested. Expected to be in use by 2025.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...charging-times

We have basically had a resurgence of match racing from the 60s with the current televised No Prep craze. So I think there is more interest from the youth than we give them credit for.

Models with rise and fall. I was just reading about increased collectability of the IROC cars. I have long been trying to talk myself into buying a ZR1 C4 before they go nuts.

I also think that the older cars will be safer than new cars now. I mean how many years have states had different laws for cars 25 years and older etc. I think collector cars will be fine in 2035. Its that 2021 Silverado I would be worried about.

Which is why GE got Locomotives right with electrical drive like 6 decades ago. Hook them electric trucks together and train em down the tracks. Rinse and repeat, daily.

Lots of hurdles to overcome.
"Engineering Explained" on YouTube has done a couple of long road trips (2000 plus miles) in his Tesla. One in the summer and one in the winter. This is the winter trip. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UskzfQJt2Bc The thought of stopping constantly to charge up is very unappealing to me....

No argument from me. I wish we had more commuter train options in this country let alone those for commercial shipping. Outside of a few major hubs like NYC and Chicago though, it just doesnt exist.

For some reason in this country we associate public transportation with "being for poor people". In new york, you hop on the subway to go to dinner. No big deal. Everyone does it.

In Tampa if I told me girlfriend to "Hop of the bus and meet me for dinner," she would probably break up with me.

Timely thread. I've never been worried about the electric market, until now. With statements made by GM to "completely phase out vehicles using internal combustion engines by 2035" and Chrysler saying the V8s days are numbered, there is legitimate concern, for me to believe anyway, that the next 20 years may mean a lot of what we do, will not be possible. Are those statements a posturing ploy to look good? Probably. They aren't talking about tomorrow, and these plans (like most this lofty do) will likely get pushed out, but when you take a look at Lingenfleters and GMs partnership on electric motors and others like it, it really seems the big 3 are working toward the all electric goal, regardless of the logistics of making it work across the country. We've seen the tail wag the dog before.

I'm still going to stand by my statement..... EXCUSES

They are just excuses. Are EV's or the government killing the farming industry? No. The farming industry is dying for the exact same reason the car hobby is dying. Lack of interest by the younger generation.

Physically show the younger generation why its interesting and they'll take interest in it. And Street Outcasts isn't the answer.

The biggest problem is that many people with collector cars have the attitude that the world must come to them. You are the very people who are going to die with a worthless collector car.

I just recalled a situation in Norwalk a few years ago.

An early 20's kid stopped at my spot looking for '64 Bonny emblems. I had an NOS fender emblem and told him the price. I could see it in his eyes and then he said it, "That's more than I can afford". I ask if he was building a '64 Bonny and he said "yes".

I donated that emblem for the cause and told him that I felt good that someone his age was restoring not just a Pontiac, but a Bonneville. After realizing I was serious, the kid was happy as a Lark.

I've seen a lot of green advocates say gridlock is a place where EVs shine, because they aren't guzzling fuel. Wrong. If it's cold out, that heat doesn't come without a price. And most (if not all) new cars have that auto start nonsense now.

The new Teslas have heat pumps to mitigate battery drain during cold weather/commutes.

Tesla auto pilot is fantastic in stop and go driving. Reduces driver fatigue and reduces chance of rear-ending the guy in front of you also.

Battery technology is rapidly advancing. Think PC tech from 1980-2000. In 5 years, EVs will have twice the range and charge in 1/3 the time. Tesla's new battery architecture includes a "tabless electrode" that shortens the distance electrons need to travel during charge, reducing heat and increasing charge rate.

ICE cars, god love 'em, are like 20% efficient. Good tech in its day but past its prime.

great story Chief, wish there were more out there like that. Bless you!
Back on thread, how long did it take GM to sell out out of the Hummer Electric?
Those commercials did not last long at all.
I guess those things sold out quick..... About the same price as the Tesla SUV? I saw one of those up here in the Pocono's once, nasty beast.

The GMC hummer is only available in limited quantities for quite some time (no batteries available). Initially they are only selling the high priced versions, which I believe are over $100k. Its just a marketing gimmick for now.

What people don't realize about electric vehicles is that its easy to make the vehicle, its the battery supply that is the fundamental constraint for the next 10 years.

I'm in full agreement with this. Not to be political [so this doesn't get canned to the Clubhouse], but it could happen sooner than we figure.

Yep, these things will kill gas cars,

https://oldautonews.com/wp-content/u...odels-1907.jpg

Every mode of power has it's draw back. Whether it is gas, diesel, electric or whatever. I don't think there is 1 power source that is the answer for every part of the country. Why can't this country have multiple vehicle power sources? Then maybe the 1 power source would not be so strained. (If there was more than one choice) oohhhhhh wait I forgot about the massive amount of greed there is. Who remembers gm's ev 1? wasn't that in the 90's? Why did that get canned then? The oil companies put the lid on that one? Hmmm. With everyone saying they are going electric makes me think the oil companies are getting weak but how can that be? All this electric talk will take longer than you think. It would be farther along today if greed and burocracy did not rule the universe. All of the real great American classic and muscle cars are never going to die. If they do America is over.

Mr dataway, Tom Vaught here.

1) I personally worked on Hydrogen Fueled Engines for The Ford Motor Company for 15 years.

2) Do a search and you will see several engines that we built over the years and installed in different "platforms".

THE ISSUE IS WE DO NOT HAVE A STORAGE SYSTEM IN THE VEHICLES THAT WILL CONTAIN THE HYDROGEN GAS FOR LONGER THAN 7 DAYS CURRENTLY.

You fill your vehicle at a Hydrogen Fueling Station, yes we had them in California, Florida, Canada, Dearborn Michigan), and the exhaust emissions are extremely clean for the few days you have the hydrogen in your vehicle platform.

The second thing is the ocean is very deep in our earth in places. H2O.
Two parts of Hydrogen to One part oxygen. A Lifetime of Hydrogen in a very small space from the ocean is required when the ocean is thousands of feet deep with water. and millions and millions of square miles of water area.

So here is the deal, figure out how to seal up hydrogen in a fuel tank for more than 7 days and you are a Trillion dollar man overnight. I do not think personally you have much chance of that and neither did the Jesse James who thought he would just weld up some Hydrogen Fuel tanks for a Hydrogen Engine blast at the Bonneville Salt Flats. Really good guy but over his head on the Hydrogen Storage problem.

Tom V.

I worked in a restoration shop in my early 20's. They restored a 1912 Baker Special electric. It was maroon and had a turtle deck both front and back that held the batteries. The passenger compartment was very roomy - lot of glass. It was steered by a tiller just like a boat. It could be set in an upright position so you could get into the seat, then pull it down and you could then steer the car. The unique thing was that the car had 2 tiller's. You could steer from the front seats (buckets as I recall) or from the back seat, ie put your guests in the front seat and drive them.

The power was applied by a lever next to the seat, you pushed/pulled it forward/backward. The coach was sprung on leaf springs and it rode like a buggy and was a little "bouncy" as speeds went up. I recall I hit 30 MPH on a short road trip out of the shop with the boss. At 30 MPH it felt like 60 MPH. Acceleration was what you would expect with an electric motor - instant. Took no time to get to full speed. You wanted to ease into the throttle as it would slip those skinny tires if you pushed the throttle arm rapidly.

There were many electric vehicles in the early 1900's to include trucks.

I recall when there was a resurgence of propane powered vehicles and many municipalities were using conversions to run them - it fizzled out. Remember magazine articles on attempting to bring back steam powered cars in the late '70's/early 80's. Then there was alcohol and build your own still using corn to create your supply to run your car. Remember those kits that used dummy slugs in V8's to convert the engine to a V4 for better gas mileage. Of course, diesel powered cars was another fad - big MPG's for sure. I had a Nissan that got 50 MPG's, but that died as well.

Today, big rigs are experimenting with CNG. A big name company I deal with tried them to see how they worked. As I recall, each truck cost $250,000 and a government grant was provided to defer the costs. A CNG fueling station had to be built. Range is limited. The CNG runs "dry" so no upper cylinder lubricant. Heads had to be changed out around 60,000 miles as I recall. Spark plugs were $70.00 each. In general, the costs of maintenance for a fleet vehicle was extremely high and there was no true saving when looking at the cost of the vehicle and what it took to maintain them. They are now going back to diesel tractors at a ratio of 8 diesel to 2 CNG tractors. So CNG/Propane doesn't look promising.

I recall reading an article where the Army was experimenting with diesel-electric trucks, just like a train uses. I suspect the experiment did not meet military standards as I have not read anything more.

Funny how the electric trolley car network was pulled up so people were forced to purchase cars. Now we could use them again, what were they thinking - auto manufacturing profits?

Electric cars will become efficient when they put electrical current under roadways like subways have, and you can run along a stretch of road and pick up a charge just like a toy slot car does in making contact with the tracts to power it. I see it coming and gasoline cars, will be highly regulated with fees and insurances and most of us will only be able to polish our collector cars in our garages like a piece of furniture. I pity the fool investors who thought they would fetch big money over time only to find no one wants them like trolley cars, steam trains, radial engines, and printed materials. They will look good in museums, and suspect some museums will offer rides for $$$.

One of my favorite things with the Grocery Getter and Boss Bird was putting kids in the seat, having Mom and Dad take their picture and then ask them if they needed a car like that someday? Always got a big grin and a "YES"!!

Eric

Tom, what's the major problem with storage? Keeping it cold enough? Or at high enough pressure? Or both?

Does hydrogen like to propagate through materials when at high pressure?

In the Nuke field we always had hydrogen misbehaving in some way or another.

Think if the storage problems could be solved ... then direct solar to water electrolysis and you have unlimited hydrogen and oxygen ... just mix them back together and you get your energy, the end result ... you get your water back. Solar power in the truest sense.

Always kind of liked the fact that all power except Nuke is solar. Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons created using solar powered photosynthesis, hydroelectric is water carried on high by solar energy, wind is driven by the air currents created by solar heating, and I guess in the larger picture ... all the elements are created from base hydrogen in the furnace at the center of stars.

This is all an energy density/storage problem. Only way that I see out of it is a portable nuclear reactor in a carrying case. It takes "X" amount of energy to move a vehicle of "Y" weight, aero, rolling resistance, blah blah blah over a distance of "Z" over an amount of time "T". A square foot of gasoline or diesel has a lot of contained potential energy, even though most is lost as heat. Will a square foot of battery be able to do the same amount of "work over time"? I could see an electric semi truck being 35,000 lbs of truck, 40,000 lbs of batteries, and 5,000 of available payload.

Those are my thoughts... currently, not even taking into account the amount of resources it takes to get the battery components mined out of the ground.

We need to capture the lost heat of the ICE and make use of it. A heat battery you could take out of the car and heat your home with after work. Something of that kind.

IMO electric is not going to be the complete answer for all vehicles, maybe a small part of the equation. Like someone mentioned it takes a lot of resources for these batteries to be made and they will get smaller but at what cost. Not to mention our electric grid is so outdated and needs to be updated.
I also wonder why we do not take advantage of one the US biggest resources Natural Gas. Almost everyone has a natural gas line hooked to their home. Why is this option not more widely pushed? All things being equal Naturual gas is better for the environment and widely available in your home.
I really do hope America actually starts looking inward and starts investing more in infrastructure like roads/bridges, electric grids that stop wasting energy and water conservation.

I think hybrids for now make more sense. Friend of mine has a Volt. The car is fast and handles like a slot car. Plus your not going to get stuck unless your dumb enough to run out of gas and battery. For me this car would make perfect sense, I live close to my work so it would probably use just the battery all the time.

Now lets talk about people qualified to repair EV vehicles...

Re size..... I remember as a kid going with my brother when he worked on IBM computers that filled large rooms (1966). Probably fit in a laptop today. Ya have to start somewhere.

Thats a solid point. I wonder if you could get in early with a tech certificate for those and make a good living.

Once upon a time being C++ serted, or Cisco certified were big deals. The market always catches up, but if you are right time right place you can write your own ticket.

I was also going to mention Street Outlaws is a cool show IMO and I believe it lets the young kids see cool fast cars. I remember as a kid seeing the early funny cars and thinking how fast they were not to mention the cool factor. The Street Outlaws mega cash days has some of the fastest guys in the nation right now. Plus with these newer cars the mechanical and all the computer system controls work side by side. Not mention some of these cars are really nice and have a lot of work put into them
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pr...o-AbZATxykt6ig
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d9/d5...f33d8520f5.jpg

NEITHER The Issue is hydrogen can migrate (leak out) thru any known material currently used in gaseous storage in 7 days. That means if you fill the bottle with hydrogen the gas will be gone in 7 days and the leakage was not caused by a "bad valve" but by a storage container that could not keep the hydrogen inside it.

We were filling the Hydrogen Buses on a daily basis from a hydrogen filling station and the truck was coming twice a week to top off the storage tank.
This "Gas Station" was a start from scratch dedicated Hydrogen filling station from a empty lot at the airport type deal. Everything brand new.

We build over 10 of these stations located in the USA and Canada. $X,XXX,XXX to build each station. The Two Governments paid the bill for the Hydrogen Research.

Tom V.

I will take a position that is contrary to what many believe. The change will happen far quicker than most people realize. Innovation begets more innovation and the significant challenges will be overcome. Then it will be Katy bar the door! That said, .I don't believe it will pose any significant issue to our "hobby" cars...unless the politicians make it so.

Why?

Its not like those bozos will get the mail where its got to go any quicker. I just finally got my package today. NH to NY only took 2 weeks. :mad:

That’s pretty quick! My cousin sent me a Christmas card and also a package of Christmas cookies. Sent them several weeks before Christmas. Got the card a week after Christmas and the cookies the next week. . . . .oh, did I mention she lives in the same state? About an hour and a half away from me.........

Funny but in reality, sad.

Its not like those clowns work for minimum wage or are even underpaid.

Fact is, they are overpaid and provide crappy service. They should just change their name to General Motors.

Hey, when you think about it ... maybe electric cars will cause a surplus of petroleum fuel and there will be more of it for us :)

I think electric cars and the necessary infrastructure will be a LONG, LONG time coming for all of the third world nations, other oil rich nations, and countries that just do what they want, like Russia and China. So while it may be quick in the US, Europe and "progressive" nations, it might be much, much longer for the rest of the world.

X2

Tom V.

Interesting topic and conversations. Im not sure I have anything to add other than a ramble of words, but I am an engineer at a power and propulsion manufacturer that supplies hybrid electric, fully electric, and hydrogen full cell propulsion systems for buses, trucks, trains, military vehicles, boats, and other applications. I will say, a 5 minute charge time will be impressive and will likely end up in smoke that isnt easily put back and latent system failures. Latent system failures are hazardous if you arent completely knowledgeable on the system. The chinese are well poised at delivering vast amounts of componests related to electric vehicles, they will control this inductry due to cost. Their technology is lacking, their batteries lack safety features, but american companies have no choice to look at them due to cost constraints, they steal technology. Some see solar and wind powering our cars and have drank the kool aid. All the energy lost in the generation, transportation, charging, storage, and conversion to mechanical propulsion of electricity makes me scratch my head about how green it is. The aspect of people being qualified to work on electric vehicles is acceptable given proper product devlopement and technician training. I am more fearful of the technology than technican skill sets. $$$ and schedule affect this, engineers have good intentions , but unfortuantely management only sees green and I am amazed at times the mindsets I encounter. The industry standards arent fully in place, how do first responder approach vehicles from all the different manufactures and safe them? They are going to need vast knowledge and going up and cutting cables isnt the right answer. The shift to electric is big business, control, greed, and the new buzz. My skewed 2 cents.

I'm not worried about it in my lifetime. It may be considered selfish, but I don't really care what happens to my car after I can't drive it any more. I've got maybe 30-35 years or so left to enjoy it. Gas won't disappear in that timeframe.

Try to imagine South America, 90% of Africa, Australian outback, Siberia, vast hinterlands of China, jungles of India, the wilds of Canada, etc. developing the infrastructure any time in the next 30 years to support electric cars ... heck, most of those place don't even have electricity period, or even indoor plumbing.

So while it might work fine in cities, suburbs and major highways, the power density and simplicity of delivery of petroleum fuels will reign supreme in the hinterlands for a long time.

I can foresee a time not too long in the future when you may have to drive ten miles outside of town to get petroleum fuel, when electric vehicles dominate the cities it won't make much sense to invest in gas stations, so they will shift to where the demand is greatest.

I think the infrastructure will lag behind the battery technology by a considerable margin when it comes to very rural areas ... which still comprise the majority of the land mass of earth. I'd expect it to be illegal to drive an ICE in most cities within 20 years.

I've refrained from posting here because of the sensitivity towards anything that can be construed as political.

But I've been thinking while reading the thread and really the key is the electrical power grid and how it's sources power. Unless your electricity is coming from mostly renewable resources, it is not as green as people think. This doesn't even factor in the non renewable energy used to make and transport the batteries for these vehicles or the energy used to mine the minerals necessary for their construction.

The most electrified nation in the world is Norway. New car sales in Norway were dominated by electric vehicles in 2020 - over 70% of sales. Norway can do this because Norway currently generates 98% of it power via renewable resources - only 2% is generated from fossil fuels.

Norway is a very small country that happens to be able to use hydropower generation for 95% of it's needs. They generate another 3% from solar and wind sources.

This is not possible in the United States or most countries for that matter. The best example of our inability to do this here in the US is California. California is attempting to force electricity on it's citizens with new regulations. In many California cities/counties, require newly constructed buildings and remodel projects that update more than 50% of the building to be all-electric.

They don't want to allow natural gas to be used in new construction, but they still use it to produce over 40% of their electric grid. Nuclear power represents less than 10%. Hydro is less than 20% and total renewable energy sources or less than 35% (wind/solar/etc).

Yet California suffers from frequent brownouts and blackouts (remember last summer's heat waves) because the power grid doesn't have the capacity to meet the current demand. As they build more all electric homes and buildings along with increased numbers of electric cars - what happens?

The electric grid will limit the numbers of all electric vehicles for the foreseeable future.