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Your future, Will you fit???
VERY INTERESTING LOOK AT OUR FUTURE!!!
1. Auto repair shops go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical engine has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric engine. Faulty electric engines are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots Essentially, if your electric "Check Motor" light comes on, you simply drive up to what looks like a car wash. Your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new engine. 2. Gas stations go away. Parking meters are replaced by meters that dispense electricity. All companies install electrical recharging stations. 3. All major auto manufacturers have already designated 5-6 billion dollars each to start building new plants that only build electric cars. 4. Coal industries go away. Oil companies go away. Drilling for oil stops. 5. Homes produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums. 1. The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle! In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975 The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age!! 2. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years. 3 Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, yet they are now the biggest taxi company in the world. 4. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties . 5. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. 6. In the U.S., young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson , you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain. 6A. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses. 7. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans. 8. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. 8A. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives worldwide each year. 8B. Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. 8C. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla 9. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear. 10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood. 11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. 12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. 13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue... technology will take care of that strategy. 14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost. 15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. 16. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes. 17. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past. 18. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. 19. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed. 20. Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: "In the future, do I think we will have that?" And, if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? 20A. If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century. 20B. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time. 21. Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields. 22. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. 23. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source". PS. We are wired for linear change. Problem is we are now in the accelerating curve of EXPONENTIAL change. Fasten your seatbelts. |
The problem with people predicting the future is they don't know what will happen. The classic example is flying cars...they were predicting those for decades, but outside of a few odd vehicles it never happened.
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Solar production of electricity has been on an exponential curve for 30 years?????????
Anyway, interesting to read. And software IS disrupting industry. Everytime my (will not mention computer name to prevent lockout) computer gets an update, something fails to work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The last update killed our local area network, so I have to carry files from any computer to the print server on a USB device in order to print! That IS disruptive! Wonder when the author of this article is going to call and want a discount on a RAIV carburetor? ;) Jon. |
point 19, not a 6 story office, but a 5 story apartment.
https://www.cnet.com/au/news/worlds-...cted-in-china/ |
:cool:well, ive been at kodak for 25 years. i worked 75 hours this week. a day off would be nice:car:
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I don't fit now, so much for the future.
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Maybe it is better to be going than coming!
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I dislike cheap digital products, can tolerate quality digital IPad.
Certainly enjoy the vacuum tube audio products, having had high quality in the design and materials. So, this "cost-reduced" crap from Walmart and others reminds me of our kitchen tools hobby; we looks for the best kitchen stuff regardless of year made. Makes cooking nice. See, this way i/we fit-in with the present and future. |
It used to be a utopian dream. But lately the future can be as alarming as an old science fiction novel, where it all went awry. Car guys have always done things their own way and the attached skillsets lend more to an individual rather than a transit riding plebe.
It's not a future that I didn't see coming. But I still believe that "they" are optimistic on the timelines. They're going to need at least some infrastructure to facilitate this and I don't see them moving on it. |
Reading that much gives me a headache......4 lines is all I need.....
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California and Europe won't be selling Gasoline or diesel cars after 2030 - they've already passed that legislation. Auto industry is now heavily involved now and committed. Try reading " Automotive News " our industry trade newsletter and see. |
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Not quite accurate...
"On January 26, governor Jerry Brown signed an executive order that commits the state to a goal of having 5 million zero-emissions cars on its roads by 2030. " "The internal combustion engine appears to be on its last lap. More than nine countries and a dozen cities or states have announced what the media has called “bans” in the last few years. Copenhagen mayor Frank Jensen wants the city to end all new diesel cars starting next year. Last December, Paris, Madrid, Athens and Mexico City said they would remove diesel cars and vans by 2025. Norway will phase out conventional cars by 2025, followed by by France and the United Kingdom in 2040 and 2050, respectively. Yet despite all these commitments, no country has actually passed a law prohibiting anything. " |
When I was a freshman engineering student back in 1977, I took a course that explored the future of engineering and society. The personal computer hadn't been invented yet, but we were seeing the first hand calculators with basic programming capability. Our professor was very liberal, and he talked of a future eutopia where machines displaced humans in manual labor and unskilled labor jobs, leaving free time for everyone to pursue more leisure activities.
I got two Bs on the way to graduating with my BSME, and one was in that course. I got into a discussion with the professor regarding where the money was going to come from if most jobs were replaced by robots. He said it would be up to society and the government to take care of people's basic needs. I stated that the government got its funding from taxpayers, and if nobody was working who was paying the taxes. He indicated that corporate taxes would fund this eutopian society. It was useless arguing with the guy, it was obvious he had never worked outside of the university in his whole life. I know we're moving more in that direction, but the basic question still stands. When computers, robots, and AI replace humans, who is going to provide living funds for those displaced. Idle minds and hands will cause a lot of problems. We're already hearing some talk about "basic income" and "wealth inequality", the forces currently at work will only make those matters worse. |
Copenhagen, Denmark
Ban new diesel cars from entering the Danish capital Copenhagen’s mayor said last year he will introduce legislation to ban diesel cars registered after 2018. “It’s not a human right to pollute the air for others. That’s why diesel cars must be phased out,” he told Danish newspaper Politiken Rome, Italy Ban diesel vehicles from city center by 2024 Mayor Virginia Raggi announced a plan to ban diesel cars from city center by 2024. “If we want to intervene seriously, we have to have the courage to adopt strong measures,” she wrote on Feb. 27 on her Facebook page. Norway Target of no new gasoline or diesel vehicle sales by 2025 In 2016, Norwegian politicians agreed to an ambitious goal of phasing out all conventional cars: “There is an agreement on a target of zero new fossil-fuel cars sold as from 2025. No outright ban, but strong actions required,” tweeted Norway’s then-Environment and Climate Change minister Vidar Helgesen in 2016. Today, nearly 40% of all cars sold in Norway are electric or hybrid. Athens, Paris, Madrid, Mexico City End use of all diesel vehicles by 2025 At a 2016 conference, city leaders committed to “stop the use of all diesel-powered cars and trucks by the middle of the next decade” and incentivize electric, hydrogen and hybrid vehicles. Paris Ban on diesel in city by 2025. Ban on all internal combustion vehicles by 2030. Paris pledged to ban diesel engines by 2025, and phase out all combustion-engine cars by 2030. “This is about planning for the long term with a strategy that will reduce greenhouse gases,” said Christophe Najdovski, head of Paris transport policy in October 2017. “Transport is one of the main greenhouse gas producers … so we are planning an exit from combustion engine vehicles, or fossil-energy vehicles, by 2030.” India No new gasoline or diesel vehicles by 2030 (if economical) In 2017, the Indian government announced the “ambition, that by 2030, all vehicles sold in India may be electric-powered.” The energy department’s plan will depend on the costs of electric cars falling far enough to make it economical. Ireland No new gasoline or diesel vehicle by 2030 The country will ban sales of all gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2030. Cities such as Dublin are required to only buy electric buses after 2018. Israel Ban import of all gasoline and diesel fuel cars by 2030. Only natural gas and electric vehicles permitted. Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz told a conference last February that “from 2030 onwards, the State of Israel will create alternatives and will no longer allow the import of cars that run on gasoline and diesel fuel. … We intend to reach a situation in which Israel’s industry will be based on natural gas, and most importantly, transportation in Israel will be based on natural gas or electricity.” Brussels, Belgium Diesel ban in Belgian capital by 2030 The government of Brussels agreed to introduce a diesel ban in Belgium’s capital by 2030. Restrictions on gasoline cars are being considered. Netherlands All vehicles emission free by 2030 A Dutch parliamentary coalition agreement stated in October 2017 that “the aim is for all new cars to be emission-free by 2030. Phasing out the tax incentives for zero-emission cars will be brought into line with this ambition.” (page 39, document in Dutch) France No new gasoline or diesel vehicle sales by 2030 The French government’s 2017 Climate Plan, pledges to “take greenhouse gas-emitting vehicles off the market by 2040: stopping sales of petrol or diesel cars will encourage car manufacturers to innovate and take the lead on this market.” United Kingdom No sales of conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2040. Reduce national vehicle emissions to zero by 2050. The UK government committed to end sales of new conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2040. Instead of completely banning petrol and diesel vehicles, it states (paywall) the “majority” of new cars and vans sold by 2040 should be zero emissions, and all should have zero emissions “capability” (such as hybrids). By 2050, the UK says it will reduce vehicle emissions to virtually zero by 2050 with “almost every car and van” zero-emissions by 2050. Scotland’s Parliament announced more ambitious plans to phase out petrol and diesel cars by 2032. Taiwan No new non-electric motorcycles by 2035 and four-wheel vehicles by 2040 The country’s Environmental Protection Administration plan would ban all sales of nonelectric motorcycles and four-wheel vehicles by 2035 and 2040, respectively. China No date given on phase-out of combustion engines China is developing a long-term plan to phase out combustion engines, according to Xin Guobin, a government official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. “Some countries have made a timeline for when to stop the production and sales of traditional fuel cars,” he told Chinese state media last September, noting the ministry had started “relevant research” to finalize a timeline. “Those measures will certainly bring profound changes for our car industry’s development.” Experts anticipate (paywall) the country will impose the phase-out ban alongside carbon controls expected around 2030. Germany Ban on sale of new diesel cars expected. Considering ban on all internal combustion engines by 2040 in line with Britain and France. Germany has not set a timeline but chancellor Angela Merkel said in Aug. 2017 that the country must eventually join other European countries banning new diesel cars.” She called plans by Britain and France to phase out fossil-fuel powered cars by 2040 “the right approach,” while adding, “I don’t want to name an exact year.” German cities are already pushing for their own diesel bans. US states: California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Canadian provinces: Québec Reduce national vehicle emissions to zero by 2050. “We will strive to make all passenger vehicle sales in our jurisdictions ZEVs as fast as possible, and no later than 2050 |
News flash gasoline cars will remain in effect for the forseeable Century.
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NO I will not fit in the future as I do not fit in now as an Old Auto tech.
I'm on the way out and don't really care for what is to come in the future auto Industry. Can't see the issue so really hard to fix. It's just out there somewhere in electrical nightmare industries. LOL. |
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