[Cliff R]

As mentioned previously this virus is DEADLY. Also keep in mind that we are taking steps to prevent the spread of the virus and the mortality rate is lower simply because modern technology offers excellent care for hospitalized patients to keep them from drowning in their own fluids and fight off secondary infections that move into their lungs after the virus ravages their immune system and damages lung tissue to a point where it can no longer effectively exchange oxygen transfer with the blood. Sadly we are still seeing folks perish, even younger previously healthy persons who got the needed care early on.

In any case this is certainly nothing to argue about fellas. It's the Lobby, put up your facts and opinions and move on. Awareness is good medicine with this outbreak, it's killing a lot of people and spreading all over the country despite all the efforts put in place to minimize that deal. We've been locked down here for weeks and going to stay home as ordered by the Governor. If everyone else did the same this would go away a LOT quicker.........Cliff

[Half-Inch Stud]

CLIFF, seems you may have the time to build Q-JETs again. Hey, i'm doing another 4L80 so...you can doo iit!

[dataway]

Again ... the reason the Covid mortality rate seems high is because of the vast numbers of people that have/had it, that experience no, or few, symptoms .... so they are never counted in the "infected" base.

When they finally count the millions of people that had covid and never went to the hospital the mortality rate will plummet, right now, the only people being counted are the victims so sick they had to go to the hospital. For every one person that tested positive they estimate there are five infected that never sought testing or care.

The problem with comparing to past outbreaks is that in the case of past outbreaks they have had years to analyze the data and to estimate total infections and ratio that with known deaths. Since they haven't even tested 1% of the population at this point there is no real data to work with.

[hurryinhoosier62]

Originally Posted by dataway

Again ... the reason the Covid mortality rate seems high is because of the vast numbers of people that have/had it, that experience no, or few, symptoms .... so they are never counted in the "infected" base.

When they finally count the millions of people that had covid and never went to the hospital the mortality rate will plummet, right now, the only people being counted are the victims so sick they had to go to the hospital. For every one person that tested positive they estimate there are five infected that never sought testing or care.

The problem with comparing to past outbreaks is that in the case of past outbreaks they have had years to analyze the data and to estimate total infections and ratio that with known deaths. Since they haven't even tested 1% of the population at this point there is no real data to work with.

Precisely. With a virus such as COVID-19, 1% isn’t even a good scientific study group. This is the problem with models; model results are subject to wildly different outcomes with simple adjustments to the data.

[NeighborsComplaint]

Some interesting reading here with links to other articles if you're into conspiracy theory:

https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-bioweapon/

One particularly troubling scenario present was the potential for development of ".an offensive agent, or a modified germ let loose by proxies, for which only China has the treatment or vaccine." It is arguable that China has also suffered massive losses of life. Perhaps the genie got out of the bottle before the vaccine development was completed …

There has been more than a fair share of mysterious circumstances surrounding NML in Canada and its Director including U.S. Customs' interception of dangerous virus samples hidden in the finger of a pair of gloves. I distinctly remember news reports of the deportation of the Chinese Nationals from Canada in 2019 under what the Canadian government called "breeches of security and protocol". The incident was significantly downplayed, presumably to avoid an international incident with China.

[hurryinhoosier62]

John, one of my wife’s clinical specialties is infectious disease control. To calculate an infection rate of a virus, you take the known number of infections divided by the total population. Let’s take Italy; the estimated population of Italy is 60,317,546. Currently, there are 105,792 positive cases of COVID-19( declining new infection....good thing!). Using the formula I mentioned earlier, the infection rate of COVID-19 in Italy is .00175. The mortality rate is 11.7%(highest KNOWN rate in the world; linked to the highest 60+ population in Europe). The current recovery rate is 14.8%. The infection rate WILL increase exponentially with additional testing as will the recovery rate. Both the mortality and new infection rates are starting to decline, indicating that Italy may have reached peak infections. Good news for Italy; Spain is now turning into the COVID-19 “hot spot” of Europe.

[Stuart]

I'm temporarily closing this thread...people's voices are getting louder and louder, and it seems to me that this discussion may be teetering on the edge of turning into a full blown slugfest soon. Let's give it a little cool down period, and maybe reopen it later.

I understand that people need to have a place to discuss the issue, and rational discussion is fine, but we also need to keep politics, accusations, and arguing about who has the correct facts out of it.

[hurryinhoosier62]

Is it a “bio weapon” in the classic model of bio weapons? No. A research project that escaped relatively undetected? Most plausible. The conscience is the virus came from consuming a bat. It would only take one insect contaminated with the COVID-19 virus consumed by a single prowling bat to infect an entire bat colony. The 1972 Biological Weapons Convention, an addendum to the 1925 Geneva Conventions, prohibits the research, development, manufacture , stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons. The U.S., Russia, the PRC and over 180 nations have ratified this treaty. The entire U.S. stockpile of biological weapons was destroyed at Johnston Island in the Pacific. The U.S. maintains Ft. Derrick (formerly the development center for U.S. biological weapons) as a bioweapons defense research facility.

[Stuart]

I merged the two threads on this topic, and am leaving it closed. Conspiracy theories belong in the Clubhouse, not in the Lobby.

[Stuart]

I may have missed some things, but I tried to clean up this discussion as well as I could and I'm reopening it for now. Please don't attempt to incite arguments with others, and be respectful of other opinions - healthy discussions are one thing, calling each other names or trying to start fights is another. Don't pass on conspiracy theories. Politics and race baiting aren't allowed.

[connman]

NO! But a word of advice to those with money in the stock market. STAY PUT! Every times some things happens, stock market goes crazy! Have you noticed that the stock market through time ALWAYS increases? Just wait it out! In the last month we saw the biggest one day drop in history and the largest increase in history! Back, 20? years ago we had a major drop! A friend of mine panicked! She lost $50,000 and in about a year it came back!

[Simple Man]

Originally Posted by connman

NO! But a word of advice to those with money in the stock market. STAY PUT! Every times some things happens, stock market goes crazy! Have you noticed that the stock market through time ALWAYS increases? Just wait it out! In the last month we saw the biggest one day drop in history and the largest increase in history! Back, 20? years ago we had a major drop! A friend of mine panicked! She lost $50,000 and in about a year it came back!

I have been keeping some cash in my 401(k). Last week I bought some more mutual funds. Everything is on sale these days. I have about 5 more years til I need it.

[hurryinhoosier62]

Originally Posted by Simple Man

I have been keeping some cash in my 401(k). Last week I bought some more mutual funds. Everything is on sale these days. I have about 5 more years til I need it.

It's a great time to invest in mutual and Roth IRAs. Depending on how your 401K funds are allocated, it might be a good time to diversify.

[OG68]

Entertainment and Pharma stocks actually gained in the first quarter.

[hurryinhoosier62]

Yesterday's U.S. COVID-19 transmission rate: .0005; today's transmission rate: .00057. You will continue to see an increase in the transmission rate as more positive cases are reported to CDC. One factor that affects transmission rates is population density. Expect to see much higher transmission rates in large urban areas verses the rural areas. Here's an example: NY State has an overall transmission rate of .0043. New York Co., NY has a transmission rate of .02999. That is over 40 times higher than the overall U.S. transmission rate. This higher transmission rate is driven by population density in NYC. Here were we live, the number of reported positive cases is holding steady at 21 as of 12:42 EDT. Indy is "on fire" with 1,117 reported case and 21 deaths. The COVID-19 transmission rate in Marion Co/Indianapolis area is .0011; the transmission rate for Floyd Co. is .000269. Once again, ALL these rate will change dramatically over the next couple of weeks.. My wife was on a conference call until nearly midnight. Many state health departments are adopting a policy of considering everyone in a state to be infected. Testing will be restricted to patients exhibiting specific symptoms.

[66sprint6]

Population density is exactly the reason that the US has 23X the number of cases of Covid that Canada has, with only 10X the population. Spread out people.

[67drake]

I told a coworker a couple weeks ago, when he started complaining about losing a few thousand in his 401K recently. “Now is the time to BUY not sell”.

[Formulabruce]

The math for transition rates would suggest that Every possible target is within "reach" . This is just not so. There are places near me where there are No houses for 3-5 miles or more once you get further North. Trying to make this an exact statistic is just not possible. Has anyone seen the FLU numbers for March?> They are lumped into the COVID19 Numbers.
If they want this fixed, Everyone should be tested with a QUALITY tester, and then separate the infected and move on. That said; Some former SARS patients that are now healthy can and have tested positive for COVID19..
Considering"ALL" to be infected could help, but basically kills the whole economy.
NOT allowing those who have R/A to get their regular dose of hydrocloroquin is like murder. Forcing otherwise healthy people with R/A to get ADMITTED to a hospital to get a prescription
from a Strange Doctor for a known condition is just plain Stupidity, But it is happening Already in NY.
If you are over 50 and have symptoms and have tested positive for COVID19, you should be given Azithromycin 250 mg once a day, and Hydroxyclorquine 200mg , twice a day for a week.
On a Prevention note that the medical profession WILL never mention...
Bacteria and Viruses Hate Zinc..
Immune system is BOOSTED by Vitamin D3, which 80%+ of Americans are lacking . Over 40, you don't make much in the Sun at all.
If you have forced hot air and cooling in your home, adding UV-C lights( 6 of them) in the cold air return can kill a lot of Anything in your air, and clean or change your filters.
Most places are cleaning surfaces and just ignore their air handlers on the roof ( business And schools).

[hurryinhoosier62]

Originally Posted by Formulabruce

The math for transition rates would suggest that Every possible target is within "reach" . This is just not so. There are places near me where there are No houses for 3-5 miles or more once you get further North. Trying to make this an exact statistic is just not possible. Has anyone seen the FLU numbers for March?> They are lumped into the COVID19 Numbers.
If they want this fixed, Everyone should be tested with a QUALITY tester, and then separate the infected and move on. That said; Some former SARS patients that are now healthy can and have tested positive for COVID19..
Considering"ALL" to be infected could help, but basically kills the whole economy.
NOT allowing those who have R/A to get their regular dose of hydrocloroquin is like murder. Forcing otherwise healthy people with R/A to get ADMITTED to a hospital to get a prescription
from a Strange Doctor for a known condition is just plain Stupidity, But it is happening Already in NY.
If you are over 50 and have symptoms and have tested positive for COVID19, you should be given Azithromycin 250 mg once a day, and Hydroxyclorquine 200mg , twice a day for a week.
On a Prevention note that the medical profession WILL never mention...
Bacteria and Viruses Hate Zinc..
Immune system is BOOSTED by Vitamin D3, which 80%+ of Americans are lacking . Over 40, you don't make much in the Sun at all.
If you have forced hot air and cooling in your home, adding UV-C lights( 6 of them) in the cold air return can kill a lot of Anything in your air, and clean or change your filters.
Most places are cleaning surfaces and just ignore their air handlers on the roof ( business And schools).

Bruce, this is why I differentiate between overall transmission rates and specific transmission rates. Where you live and where I live, we have very low transmission rates. Someone who lives in an urban or large suburban area is going to see exponentially higher transmission rates. COVID-19 is nothing more than a mutation of the SARS virus.

[Ogre]

Well, I'm just an old Boomer trying to survive this "crisis." (See photo) My neighbors aren't too happy with my antics either.

I'm trying to follow all of the advice, and also trying to educate myself on all of the reports and differing analyses … very confusing. But the most confusing is "cause of death" numbers.

I hear reports of an 80 year old dying of "complications caused by the Coronavirus." Other reports of a six year old whose death was "caused by Coronavirus." Does any agency, anywhere actually report those deaths which were "caused by the virus" vs. those whose death was caused by "complications caused by the virus"?

I know it's minor point, but in my mind there is a world of difference. And maybe it's just a semantics thing which will be sorted out in the post-mortem (pardon the usage) analysis.

Ogre