[70ra455]

GTO4EVR - totally agree. Good post.

["Puddles the Pontiac"]

i guess i am part of the next generation of car guys at the age of 27. i was lucky enough to snag a '72 Scamp ($800) a '71 Challenger R/T($5000) and my beloved '65 Lemans ($3500) at the very cheap prices shown. all were very dependable, straight bodied, cars. except for the Scamp. all before the BJ craze we have now. these were cars i drove regularly, without fear, on public roads. now i feel i need to take out an insurance policy to cover the ole lemans. and i have no chance of affording the '63 Tempest and 70-73 bird i want.

what i have been seeing is most, who are younger then i, hold these cars in high reguard. but drive the more modern muscle cars of today because they can't afford the classics, or they want something they can drive regularly instead of worrying about getting rain on there collectable. and more and more of them even prefer mordern over the older muscle car counterparts period. and at a rate that i fear the demise of any interest in the classics, along with the aftermarket following the trend. look at the popularity of the LS series of engine from the General. it is starting to eclipse the "almighty" small block chevy in terms of popularity.

i dunno, i guess what i am saying is that, with the prices of these cars so very far out of reach for the younger generation today, does that leave any future for our hobby tomorrow?

[Judge273]

from the Collector Car World
Keith Martin on Collecting
Ferrari, Porsche, Jaguar, Alfa, and British cars


Russian Roulette with a Full Clip (By Colin Comer)
You'll never see a 275 GTB/4 that started life as a green 4-cylinder with a vinyl top and a column shift automatic. But you might see a Hemi 'Cuda that way
Recent record auction results show collectors still buying what they want, when they want. The market is strong, and in spite of "gloom and doom" predictions from many experts, we are still seeing unprecedented disposable income on the table.

But along with new money comes new buyers. I see a lot of new buyers playing muscle car Russian roulette with a semi-auto and a full clip. While I have great confidence that quality cars will continue to climb in value, watching some less-than-great cars sell gives me chills. These are the cars that are bound to take a huge hit in value very soon. The market is showing signs of a serious adjustment for certain cars. Here are some examples.

CONTINUING WHAT?
"Continuation" cars: What is a continuation car? To me, this is a car with no history built to replicate a genuine example of the same. Somehow buyers have been hoodwinked into believing press releases and hype, valuing these cars higher than the original examples they are "continuing." This I do not understand. What would possess somebody to pay $400,000-plus for a 2006 "Motion" continuation Camaro that has zero resemblance to the original 1969 version it was built to commemorate, when an original could be had for less money?

I use the Motion car as an example, but plenty of cars fall into this category: Continuation Cobras, GT350s, "Super Snakes," Hemi Darts, etc. One must consider any purchase of this genre to be similar to a new car, since that is what they are. Buy one because you like it, not because it is a true collector car or an investment. Park it next to the Ford GT you paid $100,000 over sticker for and watch them depreciate together. Don't park it next to your pedigreed muscle car and expect a similar return on your money.

"Replica" or "Clone" cars: A less authentic or less endorsed version of a "continuation" car, these are built from scratch, or an upgraded version built from a lesser car. For example, from a $150,000 "restification," a six-cylinder Barracuda emerges as a "Hemi 'Cuda." Or a base Malibu gets turned into a Chevelle LS6 SS 454. Eleanor Mustangs also fall into this classification.

DON'T PAY REAL MONEY FOR A FAKE
This is a great way for enthusiasts on a budget to build the car they want, but not a great way to get into the hobby when you pay real car money for a clone or replica car. Many people learn quickly that what starts out as a fantastic plan to turn their nice 1965 Mustang fastback into a "Shelby GT350" for $10,000 at Billy Bob's local body shop just won't work out that way. By the time they are done, it is a $100,000 investment in a $25,000 car.

If you cannot afford to buy the real thing outright, consider financing or leasing it. Use your clone car money as a downstroke on the real deal. Trust me—it will be cheaper in the long run. Better still, if you just have to have a Hemi clone car, buy somebody else's at fifty cents on the dollar and drive the wheels off it. More of these are getting built every day, and values are going nowhere but down.

Mopar Hemi E-body cars: Now for something I will really get hate mail on—let's talk about Hemi 'Cudas and Challengers. With values that tripled literally overnight, these cars are bound for a "time out." While I do not think values will drop on really fine examples, I do think the day has come for them to stop appreciating at such a rapid rate. Going from $100,000 cars to $300,000 has brought a lot of cars out of the woodwork, and the rapid price increases that started four years ago mean that a lot of cars are just now getting the "let's cash in" restorations completed and are hitting the market. I won't even comment on the Hemi E-body convertibles selling for multiple millions of dollars.

B-BODIES A BETTER BET
Historically, the Mopar Hemi B-bodies (Road Runner, GTX, Super Bee, etc.) were always roughly the same value as a good 'Cuda or Challenger. Now they are about half the price. I see them creeping up and the E-bodies staying put for some time. Not necessarily scary, but not cars I recommend you run out and buy either.

So if all of these are frightening, where do I feel the safe money is in the muscle car market? As always, buy the best car you can. Just as you wouldn't buy a Ferrari with stories, don't buy a muscle car with them either. Because they are based on generic, mass production cars, it is even more important to fully document and verify any muscle car.

For example, you will never see a Ferrari 275 GTB/4 that started life as a puke green 4-cylinder with a vinyl top and a column shift automatic. But you can very well buy a Hemi Orange "Hemi 'Cuda" 4-speed that started life as a slant-six Barracuda if you are not extrememly careful. I see value in certain cars with low production figures and rare performance options.

LOOK FOR LOW PRODUCTION, RARE OPTIONS
For example, rather than a Hemi car, look at a Ram Air IV Pontiac. They are just as rare, if not more so, and were equal to the Hemi cars when new. Or how about any car built to homologate a race version, such as T/A Challengers, AAR 'Cudas, Pontiac Trans Ams, or a Z/28 Camaro? These are great cars to drive and still cheap compared to their bigger-engined brethren. Rare examples of early GTOs—the original muscle car—documented with a combination of Tri-Power or Ram Air engines and little-known options like metallic brakes or 4.33 gears, bring a small premium over the run-of-the-mill-examples, and are bound to have their day as people get more selective and look for rare factory muscle.

As a dealer immersed in the business on a daily basis, I closely monitor the market and listen to buyers and sellers both. We are in a unique time, realizing unprecedented appreciation of values and a shortage of good cars. The number one piece of advice I can give anybody curious about where the market is going is to rest easy if you have great cars. The great ones are few and far between, and always in demand. The same cannot be said of not-so-great cars, as there are far more of them than buyers. Unless, of course, there is a bidder's bar in close proximity.

As the market adjusts, and it is doing so now, the cars that sneaked into the party will be thrown out by the bouncers, and the good cars will stay to have fun. There is not one market that isn't cyclical. The one constant is that quality endures, be it in stocks, real estate, or cars. Keep that in mind when planning your next purchase, or your next sale.

[Jack Ferris]

Problem's with Barrett Jackson auction. As I see it:
1-Craig Jackson
2-Craig Jackson
3-The 10% buyers premium. Yes its only a 2% increase but if you think it didn't effect bidding, think again.
4-To many spectators. If people want to be a part of the auction, under the main tent, then pay the price for bidder credentials. Every car there can be seen without entering the bidding area. Every expo booth can be visited as well.
5-Move auction to February. Even if it didn't rain (and even a little snow) 60 degrees is as good as it gets. Warmer weather will bring more buyers.
6-Give every seller a chance to get his/her car in a premium time slot. BJ works on the favortism plan when it comes to getting a good time slot.
7-If your not going to bid, get your goofy a$$ off the stage. Yes we all want to be cool and say "look I was on TV". There are enough over financed grey hair guys up there to have their own auction. And most of them are just bs'n with the guy next to them. Go sit. Thats why they provide sitting apparatus.
8-Allow the option to put a reserve on your car. Your high dollar investment is now in the hands of a part time car and, full time livestock auctioneer. And, sometimes Craig Jackson.
9-Provide an area to wash down your car. The tents where the cars are parked are on dirt/grass. Off to the Northwest about 1000 feet there is an a$$ clown giving helicopter rides. Every time he takes off or lands your prized possession is crop dusted. Sometimes to the point where the Ca. car duster just spreads it around.
10-Work every car the same. If there are 2 people left in the building and only one is bidding then drop the hammer. I've seen them work the crap out of cars to get more money. I've also been personaly burned on a late night time slot on a high dollar car that really wasn't laying there.
11-Craig Jackson

[gto4evr]

Originally Posted by Jack Ferris

Off to the Northwest about 1000 feet there is an a$$ clown giving helicopter rides.

That was funny! I've never heard that one before. Is there a formal definition of the term?

[verdorojudge]

ITS NOT LEMON.STOP SQUEEZEING THE PISS OUT OF IT PUT THE HAMMER DOWN AND SELL THE DAMM THING.YOU WANT TOP DOLLER PUT A SIGN IN IT.ACUTIONS ARE FOR BARGINS.........

[JLHarper]

JUDGE 273, great article with good insight.

What was the date?

[gregsgtos2]

B-J is BS.i went this year for my first and LAST b-j auction,what a JOKE!they absolutely KILLED pontiacs at this 5 RING CIRCUS.pontiacs got 1 minute on the block,even the AWESOME pontiacs took it in the rear.i think that b-j should have ABSOLUTELY no bearing on car prices,especially pontiacs.how can you give corvettes,mustangs,camaros and so on 5 minutes a piece on the block and ramrod pontiacs through on 2 minutes at best and draw any kind of equal value?i was there from tuesday through sunday,it started that way and ended that way.there was 1 1962-sd post catalina in the whole auction.1 of 24 built-last of the 24 built-ONLY 3 speed column shift built-owned by REGGIE JACKSON and went across the block at 11:30-12pm saturday night.WHAT THE HE11 IS GOING ON WITH THAT?i wouldnt take a pontiac to b-j if they gave me a spot and paid for my car to be transported there.2 words about b-j.STAY AWAY! STAY AWAY! STAY AWAY!

[goatnutz]

Maybe BJ , dream car garage ,and the speed channel in general are all a bunch of DIX. Still pi$$ed off about Brunos r/a4 kicking there buts.

[CDN2PLS2]

Dream Car was there selling a Black Cuda.

[Jack Ferris]

Originally Posted by gto4evr

That was funny! I've never heard that one before. Is there a formal definition of the term?

One of the girls in our front office used the term to describe the Honda mechanic that kinked the hose to the washer fluid on her Honda. I felt it fit the person(s) responsible for providing chopper rides at a car auction. It seems to have a universal fitting so defining the term may be difficult.

[kaysersuzuki]

Originally Posted by SWEETJUDGE

To me i feel UNFORTUNATLY the pontiac will NEVER achieve the status nor price range as A HEMI car, A carroll Shelby car, AND the damn CORVETTES.
I hate the fact that the pontiacs seem to go through the commercials... or they not explained aswell. I also feel there should be a TIMED limit to these auctions EVERY Car get 5 minutes... like ebay you have a count down MAKE up your mind or get out. I also feel there is PHANTOM Bidding to make people spend more. I just dont get it sometimes. I shake my head while i watch these auctions... i cant believe what people are willing to pay. Even clones are getting big bux. I understand that the real deal maybe outta reach but comm'on know. I didnt get to see all the ponchos go by, i have to check the BJ site to see what happened. Just my 2 cents that i borrowed.

my thoughts exactly

[bruno17]

Originally Posted by goatnutz

Maybe BJ , dream car garage ,and the speed channel in general are all a bunch of DIX. Still pi$$ed off about Brunos r/a4 kicking there buts.

Sorry Bud..........didn't mean to P anyone off with my car.

[Silver Judge]

Excellent observations, I agree with this info.

Also, AssClown is a very good word to describe people that are, simulataneously, a BOZO and an A-hole. I find myself using the term once in a while too.

[70ra455]

A couple of thoughts. I think we misjudge some of this "new money" that they're even thinking about future values etc etc. I believe some people just buy things with their income regardless of investment value because for them it's a thrill and nothing else. If they loose 40K on their 200K investment then it's no big deal to them (yes it is to me!)

Second whether there is going to be a big run-up on B-body Mopars I don't know BUT I couldn't believe that a #1 Condition #'s matching '69 GTX Hemi Convertible 4spd car in a drop dead gorgeous color would sell for 200K? It seemed way underpriced and sold for less than some Hemi clones on '70 E-body. Wow.

Last - the 10% auction fee is not a 2% increase (from 8%) but a 25% increase from 8%. Therefore I agree that auction price increases will impact, eventually, BJ in a negative fashion.

[SuperStockAMX]

Finally, somebody writting the REAL story:
(Notice the GTO reference. Makes me feel better....I Guess!)

After racing along, classic-car prices level off

Bob Golfen
The Arizona Republic
Jan. 27, 2007 12:00 AM


After three years of spectacular growth and soaring car values, last week's collector-car auctions overall showed a leveling off and even a softening of prices in some parts of the overheated market.

Many sellers of popular American muscle cars were disappointed that their auction items did not rise in value over last year, and many buyers went home with cars that cost less than they expected to pay.

Even the mighty Barrett-Jackson Collector Car Auction, widely regarded as the national barometer of old-car values, barely rolled past the $100 million total sales of January 2006, even with this year's additional day of bidding and 156 more vehicles crossing the block, for total sales of about $112 million.

Compare that with the sharp increase of overall results year to year for the previous three years.

"I thought the prices were soft," said Steve Barcak, president of the Phoenix chapter of the Desert Renegades, a club of Pontiac collectors. "I'm primarily into Pontiacs, and there was a GTO Ram Air that went for 77 (thousand dollars). That's a six-figure car there."

The marquee cars at Barrett-Jackson still sold into the high six figures and even seven figures, such as the resounding $5.5 million sale of Carroll Shelby's own "Super Snake" roadster, which set a world record for an American car sold at auction.

But in the more-moderate end of the market, where many varieties of high-performance American cars have doubled and tripled in value over the past few years, this year's bidding failed to reach the heights of last year's numbers. Even the top-dog Plymouth Hemi 'Cudas were down, except for some exceptional models.

American muscle cars have led the recent charge in collector-car values, a reflection of the baby boomers' passion for the cars of their youth. Many new buyers jumped into the fray over the past few years, driving up prices to stunning levels for even the most common originals and built-up replicas of rare models.

Long-time observers of collector-car auctions have pointed at the booming muscle-car market as a bubble that was bound to burst. Some compare it with the housing market, which roared with rising home values and burgeoning sales for a time, then settled into a period of stagnation, like a hangover on the morning after.

Others in the business view this year's shakeout as a natural settling and maturing of a collector passion that is here to stay. But the heady days of ever-higher bidding appear to be over.

"The market has taken a conservative turn after the spending spree of the last few years," said Drew Alcazar, owner of the Russo-Steele Collector Automobile Auction, which sold about $21 million in mainly muscle and sports cars last week.

"That exponential compounding of values could only hold up so long, and it has found a leveling-off point," Alcazar said.

Alcazar, who said his 7-year-old Scottsdale event gained results comparable to last year's, said he and his auction experts had seen the softening market developing at auctions last summer and fall. So they were expecting the prices to be similar to the 2006 sale rather than shooting up again.

Craig Jackson, owner and chief executive officer of Scottsdale's Barrett-Jackson, said he and auction President Steve Davis also had been tracking auction results before January and knew the 2007 event was not likely to repeat the sharp increases of recent years.

"It had to level off, and it's good that it leveled off," Jackson said.

"The prices have reached healthy levels, and people are realizing these are the values.

"People have called this a bubble for four years. What it is, is baby boomers buying what they want. I don't see these cars taking a slide because there's such a big demand for them."

The car buyers have become more educated about the true values of muscle cars and other American collector cars, Jackson said, such as the '50s cruisers that held up well at this year's Barrett-Jackson. So they are less likely to pay too much for cars that aren't worth the expense.

"People are paying the right prices for the right cars," Jackson said. "People know what it costs to restore these cars. They know the difference between paying for a driver and paying for a perfectly restored show car."

The prices may be softening, but the sales results should not worry hobbyists or collectors who have high-quality original cars, said Stefan Lombard, managing editor of Sports Car Market, an Oregon publication that tracks collector-car auctions in North America and Europe.

"I think people could lose money on the cars that are not absolutely correct, or cars that have been built up or turned into something they weren't originally," Lombard said.

"But the cream of the crop will continue to stay the cream of the crop. Those prices may dip slightly but not much."

There was no bubble that burst, he added, just a normal settling of prices.

"I'd say it was a soft landing," Lombard said. "Nothing fell completely on its face."

[Rich Straub]

I was not impressed with the sale figures on the r&s auction as far as the pontiacs go, the tri black 70 455 4 speed gto convert was a steel at 126k i think, they also sold a white ralll 4 speed 70 judge with the black spoiler for 60 k, i think they had a RAlll 7o convert that went cheap, i am restoring a 70 455 ho 4 speed convert and i might be upside down in it by the time i am done if i go by these prices, I guess its a good thing i love these cars more than the money.......

[Judge273]

Rich,

Pardon my ignorance on the 70 GTO 455 verts. But, they aren't a true HO in my book and have higher production number than say a 71 true 455 HO GTO vert 4 speed car.

I would think even a RA III Vert would be a more valuable car? But, again my logic may be off.

What makes it a steal at 126K? Again, I haven't seen any 71 GTO 455 HO verts sell lately either.

But, I have heard that the 70 will outdo a 71 based on looks alone, and I don't agree with that logic either.

I like high-powered low-production hardtop cars, especially when they are the real deals with wings and stripes. Most topless ones are just out of my league.

[70ra455]

Hey Rich. I own one of the 455 HO Convertibles too and moved to Michigan (Canton) in July. Would love to see your car sometime! Are you close by?

BTW, Rich doesn't call the 455 an HO in '70 but Pontiac did. And when tested in Car Life Magazine against a RA3 car the 455 just BARELY lost in the 0-60 and the 1/4 mile and the RA3 car had no a/c and 3:71 gears against the 455's a/c car with 3:31 gears. In other words they're almost the same performance EXCEPT the magazine said the 455 car was clearly the better driver around town because most of it's HP was useable in the low end while the RA3 was more of a high-winder with more of its HP available at the upper end.

[Rich Straub]

sorry judge 273, the HO was my mistake, i own a couple of 71 TAs and i just did a post about the carb on another thread, 126 k i think is a good buy just by the quallity that the car looks to be, its also black with black top and black interior, with a 4 speed and the production numbers are LOW on these, esp set up like this one, i see prices on the 455 cars are a litte higher than the ralll converts, i am not sure what the production numbers are off the top of my head, i like the ralll also, but the ralll convert i had (gold with white top and saddle interior)was just a tad too rusty for me so i sold it, when i found this 455 car (red white top with red interior) it seemed like a better car for me, i will still have alot of $$$ into the car when its done, even though it has no rust, i dont know how many cars you have done yourself, but it is alot of money and time, (thats what makes 126k seem cheap to me) not looking for a debate just my opinion, i like them all, i have a 71 hardtop and i like the cars, but the 70 will always be the better looking car in MOST peoples eyes, 70ra455 i live just north of grand rapids (love to see your car sometime)