[linden_gto]

Just curious how members here view Pontiac market from a sustainability standpoint. I'm a long time Pontiac fan - since I was a small kid - but recently moved back into a GTO after selling off one of my Porsches. I'm considering a potential 2nd Pontiac, so I tend to keep an eye on how well that money is protected. I'm not in this for investment purposes, but I haven't lost money on a car in a long time. I just like to know (think) my money is secure. That brings up the point of where the Pontiac market is going and how interested the upcoming generations are going to be in cars and where the breaking point is. We've all watched the post-war cars, the 50s cars, street rods, hot rods all drop off and muscle cars now seem to be the next segment poised for a lack of interest moving forward. The simple fact is, millennials tend to care less about material items and/or cars really and I personally think values are going to slowly dip. I'm 51 now and I'm buying cars that I want to own simply because they're on my bucket list. There have been cars in the past that I really wanted, but also knew they were a good buy at the time. I still own a Porsche 993 C4S and it's an awesome car, but a '70-73 Trans Am, a RA IV GTO, or Judge would also look great in it's place. The 993, being a '97 is roughly 25+ years newer than the Pontiacs and, therefore, has more longevity in the market and air-cooleds are still quite strong right now. That car will likely maintain/gain value for a number of years, but the Pontiacs (imo) are nearing the peak, if not already, and will begin to diminish in value.

Wondering what others here see in a long-term perspective. Just thinking out loud here...

[77 Canamman]

1977-81 Black and gold "Bandit" Trans Ams have and are still selling very strong, and will probably go even higher once Burt Reynolds is no longer with us. Actually, all 2nd gens are strong sellers.

I see continued growth in the 1973-77 intermediate Pontiacs too. Many are selling for what was once thought unheard of prices.

[ta6point6]

I agree I see 2nd Gen Trans Am gaining in value with all the exposure on TV , plus it is just a cool looking car. Just watched fast and loud and they were in 2nd Gen heaven. I wish I had a 400 with a 4 speed in my 79 but I think even my SE with a 403 will bring some good cash if I ever decide to sell.

[72projectbird]

From what I've been seeing, Pontiacs are going up, up and up!

[linden_gto]

Originally Posted by 77 Canamman

1977-81 Black and gold "Bandit" Trans Ams have and are still selling very strong, and will probably go even higher once Burt Reynolds is no longer with us. Actually, all 2nd gens are strong sellers.

you're absolutely correct on the post-'76 T/As! who would have ever expected those cars to bring the money they're bringing today? my wife had a brown '79 T/A when we met. they built so many, i never thought a late T/As would be worth much. that said, this also shows how values move with the desires/age of the buyers. the 'late' 2nd gen cars are now desirable to a new group of buyers who are clearly overlooking (either by choice or by their wallets) the early cars that are available.

right now is an interesting time, the current/next gen of 'drivers' are of an entirely digital age and the generation of ride sharing, uber, electric/green, etc. i'm just thinking out loud what the impact is going to be - and specifically to the hey-day GTOs, T/As, Judges, SDs, etc..

[66sprint6]

I sure as heck haven't seen prices going down.

[GT182]

Yep, prices are rising. I've been offered double what I paid for my 66. Twice.

[mgarblik]

I am certainly not the expert on this, but one of my best friends for almost 40 years now makes his living buying, holding and selling collector cars. He really knows the market and makes allot of money doing this. We talk about this topic and Pontiacs in particular regularly. These are his general recommendations as far as Pontiacs are concerned. He feels strongly the best money spent in Pontiac muscle cars is on loaded rotisserie restorations. In his opinion, way, way too many were restored 15-20 years ago and most very well done. There is a glut of these cars on the market, all brands selling for 50%-75% of what it would cost to do one today. He too is amazed by the late second generation value of the TA's as I am too. He feels early 60's full size models are at peak now including SD cars. Little interest from the under 50 crowd. He is staying away from the "barn find" cars, as they are hot now and a poor investment in his opinion. There are some weird Pontiacs, not necessarily great cars he feels are good buys right now. Indy Fiero's, Fiero GT's, 73 and 74 GTO's, low production and undervalued. He feels it's hard to go wrong with the old, "largest engine available and manual transmission" scenario. I tend to believe the guy because he has been very successful in this business. It's all about knowing WHEN to buy and sell. He has been holding a 71 Pantera for 25 years because it was stuck at 35-40K. He is finally selling it because it is now a low six figure car. I would never have the patience and knowledge to know the "when" to sell. He also has a 73 and a 74 SD-455 . They too have been a little stagnant over the last 5 years but are moving up again now. The 73 is a 20K mile red car and should be into 6 figures finally. He will likely sell them both in the next couple of years he says. Feels they will peak soon. It's always a gamble, so my advice is if buying just one car, get one you really love to own unless looking at it strictly as an investment. Good luck in your quest.

[zeebo]

im no Pontiac expert, but have been in the car hobby in one way or another all of my adult life. I too don't see prices coming down on muscle cars any time soon, if ever. they may take a correction, but that's about it. my long range forecast for cars is about on par with what some of the other guys are saying about the younger crowd not being too interested and really no more factory support for racing as per the 50's and 60's. however; my take on the muscle cars is they will continue to appreciate to where they are completely out of the price range of people who work for a living (some are already there) and become like the auburns, cords and duesenbergs from the 1930s are today...multi-million dollar cars all in private wealthy hands, for the most part. and as the prices of desirable cars rise to where no one can afford them; and along with the old school guys with the know how pass away; will signal the death knell for the car/racing hobby for the most part.

[66sprint6]

I read that muscle cars as an investment had outperformed the stock market. But yes you have to sit, just like any investment. You want someone asking to buy it. I don't know why I can't convince my wife about this.

[Elarson]

I am not an expert but here's my 2cents.

The millennials and future generations have a steadily decreasing interest in cars. My prediction.....in 20 years when the current crop of baby boomer Pontiac owners are gone, there will still be interest (and value) in the ultra collectibles; such as SD's, '69 Trans Am convertibles, etc. These are the cars that will continue to crop up in niche market magazine articles, collector auctions, etc.

The more generic "nice GTO" will fade in value until they are affordable to the only-mildly-interested casual buyer.

JMHO,
Eric

[1965gp]

Here is my thinking:

I know we are seeing 40's and 50's cars slow down- but the big money cars (Packards, caddys, Bonnevilles and Impalas) all seem to be going strong which buys into the biggest motor and 4 speed motto.

As far as 64-74 cars I think it is an interesting situation.while you would expect the cars to go down in 10 years based purely on age and history- look at what cars are in music videos, movies, photo shoots etc.

A muscle car instantly gives street cred to a character in a movie, the videos my kids watch always have old cars (a lot of 66-67 GTO's) to add some excitement. Look at movies like John Wick, Faster, the perfect guy, etc. the cars didn't make a difference in the movie and any car would have worked but the Mustangs, Chevelles and Chargers gave the character attitude. The cool kid on the nickelodeon show victorious drove a gold 66 GTO,

My point is that Hollywood is doing a good job of keeping these cars in front of today's youth and I don't see them dropping off like cars of the 40's. If muscle cars stay popular, I would think Pontiac would be near the top of the market.

A friend has a shop that only works on older cars and he has a waiting list to get your car in. Place is always packed. I don't think the hobby is going away anytime soon.

I think if anything the market is slightly overinflated due to shows like fast and loud and will self correct in a few years when the shows aren't as popular.

[GT182]

It depends on HOW BAD some that's asking really wants it, and IF you're willing to part with it. Show me the money NOW doesn't hurt either.

[Interceptor]

Originally Posted by 1965gp

My point is that Hollywood is doing a good job of keeping these cars in front of today's youth and I don't see them dropping off like cars of the 40's.

This is key. All those musclecars used in F&F, Wick, Reacher etc have imprinted their coolness on kids that up until then were only into tuner cars. How many of us now own cars that we once saw as a kid and thought, someday I'm gonna have one of those. No offense, but those of you who keep your cars squirrelled away aren't doing the market any favors.

We all do our part taking our cars to cruises etc, and keeping the kids thinking, WOW, that's something -- and they will keep values up in times to come when they have the money. I drive mine every chance I get, and if anything I get more compliments from youth than from adults. This is perfect, cause someday one of them will pay me more than the thing is probably worth.

[linden_gto]

Originally Posted by mgarblik

I am certainly not the expert on this, but one of my best friends for almost 40 years now makes his living buying, holding and selling collector cars. He really knows the market and makes allot of money doing this. We talk about this topic and Pontiacs in particular regularly. These are his general recommendations as far as Pontiacs are concerned. He feels strongly the best money spent in Pontiac muscle cars is on loaded rotisserie restorations. In his opinion, way, way too many were restored 15-20 years ago and most very well done. There is a glut of these cars on the market, all brands selling for 50%-75% of what it would cost to do one today. He too is amazed by the late second generation value of the TA's as I am too. He feels early 60's full size models are at peak now including SD cars. Little interest from the under 50 crowd. He is staying away from the "barn find" cars, as they are hot now and a poor investment in his opinion. There are some weird Pontiacs, not necessarily great cars he feels are good buys right now. Indy Fiero's, Fiero GT's, 73 and 74 GTO's, low production and undervalued. He feels it's hard to go wrong with the old, "largest engine available and manual transmission" scenario. I tend to believe the guy because he has been very successful in this business. It's all about knowing WHEN to buy and sell. He has been holding a 71 Pantera for 25 years because it was stuck at 35-40K. He is finally selling it because it is now a low six figure car. I would never have the patience and knowledge to know the "when" to sell. He also has a 73 and a 74 SD-455 . They too have been a little stagnant over the last 5 years but are moving up again now. The 73 is a 20K mile red car and should be into 6 figures finally. He will likely sell them both in the next couple of years he says. Feels they will peak soon. It's always a gamble, so my advice is if buying just one car, get one you really love to own unless looking at it strictly as an investment. Good luck in your quest.

this is good stuff from your friend, but clearly he is looking at the market and cars from an investment/when to sell standpoint. i totally agree with his comments and have even been watching similar cars as he has. i've been watching the Pantera market for a long time - a friend owned one about 25 years ago with the plate WAWAZAT. cool car, but they took some time to reach the high-end numbers. now, good Panteras are 6-figure cars. want something rare from DeTomaso - look at Mangustas or Longchamps. Great cars, but need someone with knowledge and know-how. i also remember SD455s back in the day and thinking 'these are really undervalued right now'. we'd all be rich if we could all buy our 'hunches' when those opportunities presented themselves. patience is also something that you have to have or the ability to stockpile and not have to sell to move up the ladder. i've owned some cars that are now somewhat valuable - e30 M3, e36 M3 LTW, 964 RS America, e28 M5, '78 928 (1st year 5-spd), 67 911... - but each was sold to move to something else. unfortunately, you can't keep every car and buy something else unless you're very well to do. at this point, i'm just looking for those cars that i really want to own, but sometimes it's tough to let something else go. again, we can't all keep adding $50-100k cars while maintaining everything else we own.

great discussion!

[linden_gto]

Originally Posted by 66sprint6

I read that muscle cars as an investment had outperformed the stock market. But yes you have to sit, just like any investment. You want someone asking to buy it. I don't know why I can't convince my wife about this.

that would all depend on what you bought (stocks) and how savvy you were in the market. if you bought Apple back in the day, no way did any muscle car compete with that. Hemis went up and fell back, back up again. Ferraris do the same thing - lost tons of value in the 90s. of course, blue chips will always hold - no real argument there. my goal is typically to at least maintain value and/or increase to some degree. anything beyond that you consider icing on the cake. of course, there are also the people who bought Pontiacs and kept thing long term. if you've been able to do that, congrats to you. that $1500 investment in 1975, when everyone was unloading muscle cars for next to nothing, looks pretty ****ing good right now. hopefully, i'll have my time-machine up and running soon and i'll be able to go back and make some wise moves.

[carcrazy]

In my opinion, as we age out, prices will drop. While I love early 60's big cars, I believe they are at or near peak. For the most part, the younger generations have no desire to have one. So, over time (I'd say within the next 5-10 years) the values will drop on all but the most rare.

[Engine-Ear]

Originally Posted by Interceptor

those of you who keep your cars squirreled away aren't doing the market any favors.

VERY TRUE, with the caveat that even if a man has the means of putting together a collection, he often doesn't have time to drive one everyday, let alone keep them all in turn-key condition.

...but to your point and to that end, I was at ELEVEN '62s back in the '08 time frame...now down to the "top 3", and each provides (or WILL provide) a different thrill.

Originally Posted by Interceptor

We all do our part taking our cars to cruises etc. ... I drive mine every chance I get...

Amen, brother.

Bring on the posse for my even daring to say this, but may I please add: if you want to ENCOURAGE young people to catch "old" (relative, I know) car fever, when you're at a cruise-in or a show and you're WITH the car, please remove the "Do not touch" signs. Assuming he's not wearing sandpaper gloves, LET a curious young person touch the car. INVITE him to sit behind the wheel and see what only an owner sees.

...If you want to see the value of your 35+ year old car keep its value, you aren't doing the notion any favors by preventing the curious from the healthiest hobbies a kid can get to these days.

[linden_gto]

Originally Posted by Engine-Ear

Bring on the posse for my even daring to say this, but may I please add: if you want to ENCOURAGE young people to catch "old" (relative, I know) car fever, when you're at a cruise-in or a show and you're WITH the car, please remove the "Do not touch" signs. Assuming he's not wearing sandpaper gloves, LET a curious young person touch the car. INVITE him to sit behind the wheel and see what only an owner sees.

great comment and couldn't agree more! i'm always a bit leery at some events, but if i see a kid interested or looking in, i always ask if they want to sit behind the wheel and let their dad/mom take a pic. kids love that opportunity and that will absolutely encourage an appreciation for cars that came before the ipad, netflix, and earbuds.

[linden_gto]

Originally Posted by carcrazy

In my opinion, as we age out, prices will drop. While I love early 60's big cars, I believe they are at or near peak. For the most part, the younger generations have no desire to have one. So, over time (I'd say within the next 5-10 years) the values will drop on all but the most rare.

this is what my initial post was getting at. minus, again, the blue chip pontiacs/collectible cars, i see the overall interest in what we own diminishing over time to the point that most younger buyers will have zero interest in a car this old that is 100% analog. "seriously? i have to ROLL the window down??" it's simply a matter of progress and interest - it will happen. it just seems that the millennials and gen-next (made that up, as i'm not sure what they are/will be called) are really a world away from where we were at the same age. it will be interesting to see what happens as things move forward. i will say this, if i do add another old pontiac, it will be to fulfill a want of mine (which it always is), but i will expect that car to eventually diminish in value - assuming i live that long. i have no great hopes of buying the next great collectible from that era and that's fine.