[PonchoV8]

I never understood the usage of the term 'clone'. Cloned how? Did someone take a real car and use it to create another genetically identical and authentic car by borrowing the other cars pedigree and heritage? No, you took a lesser car and dressed it up to appear like the real thing. It's a less negative way to say fake. Recreation is about the same, but is probably closer to correct.

[PonchoV8]

The nice thing about auctions when you're a seller is, you don't have to deal with the negotiations of the buyer. That can be such a pita.

Auctions are nice. Don't want to pay the price? Move on to the next one. Don't get your price? Keep it and move on. It's all over in no time at all. No weeks of time wasted.

I once a sold a Jeep locally. I had some freak from Mich tell me he couldn't pay my price because he wouldn't be able to make money when he flipped it. He demanded I take his number over the phone so when it didn't sell for my price, I could call him and take his very low offer. He wouldn't take no for an answer. So when I finally said fine go ahead with the number, I laid the phone down on the couch and picked it back up 5 seconds later to say thanks and goodbye. I sold it for full price two weeks later. He didn't believe me--the guy just wouldn't go away. Three outta four don't buy. One of those is likelu to be a problem.

[JLHarper]

I still think that it was the average joes that ran it up. Were talking hundreds of thousands of people who jumped in and bought. Articles say its the guys reliving their high school days, taking equity loans, pulling out of market etc.

Some may be consider investors and average Joes in same category.
Im not discounting the investors you mentioned, as many wanted to drive and see cars appreciate at the same time. I just think it was average joes buying that caused the gains, paying any price to get something.
Basic supply and demand.

If majority of average joes have become bored, cautious, gone back into traditional investments,
whatever, then we have lost the momenteum as hundreds of thousands decide not to buy this year in a wait and see approach.

Couple of collectors had said months ago that the plain jane cars will adjust in price, (go down) and that more rare cars will continue to gain, but perhaps not nearly as fast as when non collectors were in buying frenzy.

One sign would be if we start seeing projects half done on ebay by the dozens each week and $8K-10k driver GTOs again. They were popping up in December more then I would have liked to have seen.

[poncho-mike]

I think you're right about the half-finished projects.

I've got a friend who is talking about selling his 66 GTO convertible. He's had it for probably ten plus years, gathered parts for it, and restored the frame. He's moved on to other things and will probably sell it later this year.

I've got another friend with way more money into a 71 Formula than he'll ever get out of it. It's half-done and he's lost interest.

Mike

[HUMBLER]

1970 custom GTO with 05 drivetrain (x100) goes for over $100K, love it...

[John Payne]

Originally Posted by HUMBLER

1970 custom GTO with 05 drivetrain (x100) goes for over $100K, love it...

..I,for some reason, REALLY liked that car. It would be a great candidate for the Hot Rod Power Tour and probably wicked at the strip

[PonchoV8]

Originally Posted by poncho-mike

I think you're right about the half-finished projects.

I've got a friend who is talking about selling his 66 GTO convertible. He's had it for probably ten plus years, gathered parts for it, and restored the frame. He's moved on to other things and will probably sell it later this year.

I've got another friend with way more money into a 71 Formula than he'll ever get out of it. It's half-done and he's lost interest.

Mike

That's more common than guys that finish them IMO. I've never gotten to half done myself.

[Ron Landis]

Greg told me how you were given the "bum's rush" on the block. That sucks more than me missing seeing the car sell. Waited all that time to see it and after their commercial break, there sits some foreign POS with a nitrous bottle! I was pissed beyond belief. Anyway, I wish things would have turned out better for you and I hope you have better luck where it counts...with your family issues! Thanx for doing the car proud with your efforts. She was standin' tall! Were it mine again, I wouldn't trade it for any three Chevelles or Mopars for that matter...unless they were trading material for more Pontiacs! Maybe the IV will turn up at the Pure Stock Drags...fat chance, huh? Anyway...onward and upward for us all, I reckon. Take care. Ron

[70ra455]

Let's figure this out in ways that make sense. There's no ONE reason for the prices of cars coming down. I tried to tell you guys last year this was already the case - you could see it in ebay prices - BJ just had to catch up. Here are some of the multiple reasons for prices coming down.

1- With stocks at record highs money is pouring into them once again and if people think their money is better spent on stocks as far as ROI is concerned - imagine the difference of upkeep between stocks and cars! I myself am putting my money into Ford (I don't buy stocks OR cars when priced stupid high - I buy when everyone else runs away)

2- As stated earlier the Real Estate market is down so access to equity is down. So is the emotion factor of reducing confidence in general. Now I personally think it's idiotic to take loans out to buy classic cars but if you're an INVESTOR only and the deal makes sense then I guess it's not that dumb - but if the real estate market is down that impacts prices of all of these "lifestyle" collectible markets.

3- When I first started in this hobby I could buy unbelieveable Tri-power full size cars, 4spd full size cars, GTO's, etc at far less than sporty new cars and enjoy them more (some of that enjoyment was my knowledge that it looks different and costs 1/2 of the new car!) I'm speaking 1992 when I started. Now the prices of these older cars have surpassed the best new cars so people who like to drive (me) have to decide. In 1992 I decided that 9K was a steal to drive a 4spd 1965 Bonneville Convertible with 421 HO Tripower and full power (a/c, windows, etc) when new cars were in the 25-40K range (I'm talking the cool sporty ones.) Now '70 Judges were bringing 100K last year and now still bring 55-70K at BJ (and this just the RA3 versions!) 1970 Chevelle SS with automatics and standard engines sell for 100K!! I can buy a brand new Shelby Mustang 500 Convertible for 50K!!! I can buy the new Challenger when it comes out for 50K!! I can buy a 5K mile 2006 GTO for 26K!! I can buy a Solstice GTP for 30K!! I can buy a Corvette Convertible for 55K!! The differences of time spent fixing, handling, speed, comfort, are striking and now the "cool" driving factor has caught up because these new cars are really awesome. All of these factors hurt the classic car market.

4- Not only is the cost of parts and restoration going through the roof but the attitude of most car restorers (and quite frankly most classic car owners) sucks to the point that less people are deciding to deal with them when they can buy Ford at 6.60 (which I did) and still buy it at 8.30 today - watch it grow to 25.00-30.00 and go to a new car showroom without the B.S. of dealing with a-holes and drive better, faster, more reliable, and quite frankly just as good looking cars.

5- The young people have been turned away from all these cruise nights because the old people will not stop playing 50's music even though most of the cars people are drooling over now are from '65 - '75. They snub their noses at young kids driving "junker" 81 TA's and Camaros because these young kids have the temerity to think that they're enjoying cars too! They get crazy if some young guys are skateboarding anywhere within 50 feet of their precious cars and all these kids want to do is hang out and check out the great looking cars. (I really believe that one day old people are going to try and warehouse young kids in some far off land!) This same generational conflict happens all the time in every industry and hobby and eventually the old die out and the young start their own deal. We're in the midst of this now.

All to say that demographically the old car hobby is on it's last decade of the crazy "prosperity" that it experiences today. There will always be a market for these cars as long as the laws don't prevent us from owning them. But the prices for you guys hording parts and projects is going to come way down. However, for me who loves driving the old cars this is a good thing since I'll be buying on the downside since for me I buy for pure enjoyment.

I really did enjoy driving my '70 GTO Convertible (455 Ram Air and 4spd) much more when I purchased it 4 years ago for 17K. Now that's it's worth ... who even knows anymore ... I'm more concerned with 1 of 1 status and all that blah blah blah rather than just driving it and enjoying it. I bought it as a gift for my then 12 year old who loved '70 Judge Convertibles with 4spds. At that time I told him "you better have a good job because I'm not paying $65,000 for one of those!" That was 4 years ago! Now the red one on Ebay seems to be generating bids of around $200,000 and we're complaining that the market is soft!!!

Phew ....

[PonchoV8]

Stocks are not at record highs. The Dow is at a record high. There's a big difference. International funds are at record highs, and oil companies are making record profits. But that's different than saying stocks are trading at record levles.

Also, the dollar has shrunk in the 5 yrs since the terror attacks of 9-11.

Comparing these car prices to the price of a new flagship auto offering has always been how I get my mind around how muscle cars are priced to the world buyer.

[Jerry H.]

I believe will we see some record prices again Today, but only on a select few cars. The two 65 converts going thru today will bring 100k+, just because it is Saturday and the cars around it are bring well over that and make these look like bargains. (even though they are not correct) The 69 GTO RA IV convert will probably bring the highest price of ANY GTO (non Judge) ever sold. They way BJ sets up there auction, they will be no 'average' cars go thru today, as there were in the past few days. When the cars in the auction on that day are bringing 150 and up minimun, it will bring up everything around it. Just my prediction.

I believe were are seeing the market do exactly as I predicted. The average, everyday cars (non RA IV, non factory tripower & 4spd and convert, non LS6 Chevelle, etc) are dropping in price. But, the RAIV Judges, convertibles; the tripower 4spd converts, the LS6 converts, most Hemi's, that have super concours restos will hold there own and even rise a little.

Today's auction will tell the tale.

[HUMBLER]

Originally Posted by John Payne

..I,for some reason, REALLY liked that car. It would be a great candidate for the Hot Rod Power Tour and probably wicked at the strip

The ghost Judge emblems and stripes I thought were a very nice touch and tied it all together. Fat chance, but to see that car at the autocross and drags at the nationals would be a huge treat.

[68bird400HO]

Originally Posted by Jerry H.

I believe were are seeing the market do exactly as I predicted. The average, everyday cars (non RA IV, non factory tripower & 4spd and convert, non LS6 Chevelle, etc) are dropping in price. But, the RAIV Judges, convertibles; the tripower 4spd converts, the LS6 converts, most Hemi's, that have super concours restos will hold there own and even rise a little.

Today's auction will tell the tale.

I remember after last year's BJ, you and I discussing on a thread where to draw the line between what will stay expensive and what would come down. I still hold that the line will be a little higher than where you are drawing it. Unless you have a car that is truely one of a few, or a prototype, or a very low mileage example of an extremely rare car, etc, I expect prices to come down. Hemi hardtops, LS6 hardtop, RAIV Judges hardtops, Shelbys are all vunerable IMO. Hemi converts, LS6 converts and cars on that order may be somewhat safe. Last night my wife mentioned she saw what she thought was a Shelby convert go through for $95k and the commentator said that that car brought about 1/4mil last year.

On the other end, I don't think you would get too hurt on your plain jane GTOs, SSs, Roadrunners that you can buy nice #s examples of in the $20k-$30k. I think that the buyers of these cars are more enthusiasts or people looking for a toy to have fun with rather than speculators. I think that the mid-range cars are the most vunerable. The cars that went up dramatically due to speculators are the ones where you will see the most price compression as they back out.

Keep in mind that all of this is relative. Just looking at where prices are today with the market softness versus 5 years ago, they are higher. Really, back in 1999 how many of you thought your RAIV car would be a $50k car in 6 years. Even if prices on most of these mid-range cars take a major step backward, their prices will still be quite a bit higher than what they were in 2000, and probably still higher than what most of us thought they would ever be in the near future (from a year 2000 perspective).

I say the hobby is stronger than ever because I do believe that many newbies have come in over the last 6 years and truly enjoy it. However, as the speculators leave, the people willing to pay 6 figures for a car will thin out. I also agree that the current economic conditions (in which I think interest rates are still very low) and the fact that many of the past buyers are already heavily leveraged plays a major role here.

[68bird400HO]

Originally Posted by PonchoV8

Comparing these car prices to the price of a new flagship auto offering has always been how I get my mind around how muscle cars are priced to the world buyer.

I agree and that is another reason why I think the bottom end of the market won't get hurt too much. Spending $20k-$30k on a toy is really not out of line. Look what people spend on boats, motorcycles, and SUVs. A nice ski boat is $20k+, and new Harley is $25k (for the larger bikes). People spend how much on Hummers, Navigators, Expeditions, BMWs, etc, that I just don't see $20k to $30k for a nice plain jane musclecar out of line.

One thing I am a little surprised at with the BJ results is it seems like the 50s and big 60s cars have done quite well. The customs seem to be doing really well too. I don't see where someone would speculate on a custom and seeing that black '70 GTO custom bring $125k(?) says wealthy enthusiast to me.

[70ra455]

Good analysis on the mid-range vs. lower range cars BIRD.

The question I have is where is my car?

1970 GTO Convertible 455 with Ram Air 4spd. The only one I know of. Options hood tach, rally wheels, rally gauges, console, mats, a/c, posi, Ram Air hood inlet, m-21, 12-bolt, trunk light, and a few otherw from factory. Wood wheel, am radio

Added (all original Pontiac parts): PS, Judge Wing (original), Formula wheel (kept the mint condition wood wheel), am/fm.

Car is Atoll Blue, blue interior, black top.

What'dya think? High end, middle of road, or low end. (well I know it's not a low end.)

Thanks

[SuperStockAMX]

Russo & Steele: NICE '69 GTO Convertible...RAIV, 4-speed, 3.90 gears SOLD $85K (before fee's)!
Barrett Jackson: NICE 69 GTO Convertible red / red RAIV, a/t, 3.90 SOLD $125K (sold last year at Russo & Steele for $160K before fee's)

Geeezzz...maybe I shouldn't feel so bad!

[BLKBRD]

"Blackbird...**** you and your attitude. Someday you will have a family member with problems and don't expect any sympathy from those around you for your display of callousnous. You started this crap with your prayer I loose my ass on this car. Well, your prayers are answered. I believe good things happen to those that treat others well and bad things happen to those that wish ill on others. To the rest of the Pontiac guys here, it was mostly a good experience and thanks for your help when I asked. I can say I owned a great one such as this and will always have found memories of it."

SuperStockAMX,

I welcomed you into the Pontiac family when it appeared that you had become one of us. Many of us had offered our support to you believing that you had become a member of the Pontiac family. We provided you the information that you required to make your car what we had believed you had wanted it to be. You lead us to believe that you were one of us. You failed us!!!! I'll bend over backwards to help out a fellow Pontiac enthusiasts. I've given high dollar parts to fellow Pontiac members for dirt to help them get their projects on line. Why? Because that's what the hobby is all about. I don't believe in giving valuable parts and information to people so that they can line their pockets. As far as Pontiacs go, you are clearly no more than an invester. Unfortunately for yourself, you are not a very good investor. Had you done your homework (and taken my advise), you'd have realized that BJ was not the place to try to score big money on a Pontiac. You took a serious gamble with your families well being by going to BJ and you lost. I can only hope that you still have enough money left to ensure that your daughter will be able to retain her ability to hear. It would truly be a shame if she had to spend the rest of her life disabled due to your greed.

P.S. I don't believe that you sold the car due to an illness in the family. Every PRICK that wants to divert the heat plays the "Oh, I've got a sick family member" card. You claim that you are selling the car due to health concerns of your daughter. Where I come from, we make damn sure our family is covered (including health insurance) before plunking down $65k on a hobbie car. If you had substantial health care for your family, you wouldn't have to sell the car. The bottom line is that you are either a very poor provider for your family, or a complete bullsh*ter to those of us on thise site! I'll give you the benifit of the doubt and state that I believe that you are intelligent enough to provide substantial health insurance for your family!

[Todd Kozak]

I think this ' 69-71 Judge ' Forum should be split into two Forums, one for the true-blue hobby guys that love Judges and love to help other true hobby people by sharing knowledge/parts/resources. The other one could be where all the 'investor/speculator/could give-a-f$%k-about-the-cars-just-like-the-money' type people could 'share' their 'love'.

[Steve Hoog]

Ok some one has a hang over

[ponjohn]

When is this car going up on BJ?

John